What next......

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3 August 2013

I have written about the silly season already and, right now, there is little that gives any real inspiration in the news.

But what is to come..... what can we look forward to.

2014 will be the last full year before we get a general election. There will be European Parliament elections during that year which will be the biggest test of public opinion nearly a year before the big day. But, of course, it will not actually say much about what will happen in the Westminster election.

But there are clues and historical precedent to look to.....

Over that year we will see a steadily strengthening economy with only outside shocks to worry about. Precedent tells us that, in most elections, it is the economy that will determine the outcome so the coalition parties, in that sense, will be well placed.

It is also true to say that Labour should be much further ahead in the polls than they are at this stage in a parliament for them the be able to win. People remember and will not forget, their mishandling of the economy over those terrible 13 years. Milliminor is also correctly seen as weak. The Unions are perceived as having far too much influence over Labour, again quite correctly. Recent attempts to whitewash the Labour/Union settlement has been seen through for what it is. They are not well positioned to win with only the electoral boundaries remaining in their favour to help.

So the economy will help the coalition parties but what of the component parties. This is where issues unrelated to the economy will 'tell' and in their there is not much hope for the LibDems.

On Human Rights and on the EU they are seen at odds with public opinion. Indeed even when it comes to the economy they can justifiably be accused of holding back and slowing the recovery acting as they have as road-blocks to supply-side reform.

The LibDems will also no longer attract their traditional protest vote having been tainted by being in government. Also the meek and timid who want to avoid the responsibility of electing a government will not support them again. In both cases UKIP will gain.

So over to UKIP - I can confidently predict that they will not win a single Westminster seat. Yes they will gain some protest votes but the traditional Tory right will not want to risk a Labour or Labour/LibDem government and will vote Conservative not UKIP in a 'real' election. Specially if Cameron, freed from the malign influence of the LiDems, offers some real 'red meat' over the EU and Human Rights.

Cameron though would be well advised to ditch the LibDems during the course of 2014 to re-establish the Conservatives individual identity and to govern through to the election as a minority government.

2014 will be an interesting year with everything to play for.....

Guest 710 wrote:
Ah!, grasshopper, please to remember that the old Chinese saying, "May you live in interesting times." is really an old Chinese Curse.
Although, in all probability, it is neither old nor Chinese.
http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/may-you-live-in-interesting-times.html

"With everything to play for." Whatever 'game' is being alluded to here, it is not likely to be the least 'Cricket'. Maybe more 'Game of Thrones'? [Not that I have any knowledge of that book or TV series.]

Of 2014 I will say only, "Be careful what you wish for."
Guest 745 wrote:
And the North ,Scotland and Wales will keep voting,, other.

Cameron promised all this before Barry, and still never got a majority

And this was after 13 years of incompetent labour.

And the national debt will have increased buy ,how much Barry ?????
Guest 745 wrote:
http://www.taxpayersalliance.com/debtclock/
Guest 655 wrote:
Keith - as I have said before Cameron and Osborne did not cut spending deep enough or fast enough. Even if he did double the rate of cuts, Labour's defecit was/is so huge the debt would have gone piling up at least until 2015. The advantage is that by lightening the load on business with tax cuts from some of the savings, growth would have been boosted (more supply-side reforms needed as well incidentally).

Would you support the extra cuts needed? - freezing benefits 5 years - freezing public sector pay for 5 years - phasing out tax credits over 5 years plus a lot of functions of government ended all together.

Would you support the tax cuts needed? Simple flat taxes with a maximum income tax rate of 35p, end to CGT, full scale tax reforms.

Would you support the supply-side reforms needed? Cutting the costs and risks of employing people......... I could go on.

I suspect not, if not then you cannot say anything about the size of the deficit because you would oppose what is needed to tackle it properly and quickly.
Guest 745 wrote:
Yes I would support cuts ,starting at the top

Flat tax ,and the closing of the tax loopholes bring NI and tax together

End subsidies to land owners encourage smaller family farms ,stop energy subsidies to land owners and roof panels

Cut the public sector middle and top , cut Whitehall

Ban agencies to end parasite tax.
Guest 655 wrote:
From what I can see you mention none of the big cheque items and also touch on matters that are not even UK budget but EU.

Glad you approve of a flat tax and reform.

You cannot save money though in just cutting 'middle and top' in the public sector - whole functions need to be abolished. laws simplified and changed, all with a view to reducing the burden on the public and private sector. Chopping a few managers will not achieve that, we need to get rid of whole areas of government instead and be much more radical.

I am not sure where agencies come in, as banning those will not save the public sector anything. In fact it would cost tens of thousands of jobs, block a route into employment for millions, add massively to the burden of cost for UK businesses damaging their competitive position, though more zero hour contracts would help offset that.....

Encouraging 'small family farms' is a matter for the market and not something government should get involved with. Government interference never helps anything and it should be doping less.

Energy - yes the push for green energy has gone too far. We need nuclear and fracking.