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  February 26th is the date pencilled in by Conservative Whips as a likely General Election date.
  
  The considerations for Brown around this date are interesting:
  
  For: Things are not likely to get any better for him. 2009 will be a very hard year and even now it is becoming clear that the PBR is a flop and the public will catch on to this increasingly. The budget in March will itself blow the lid on the PBR. Unemployment will start to soar towards 3m possible 3.5m. David Cameron will find it easier and easier to get his message accross during the year as the recession deepens. By the Autumn Darling's gamble and huge borrowing spree will be shown to have failed. Labour have booked poster sites around the UK.
  
  Against: There is likely to be a wave of redundancies in the New Year just as people are getting their Christmas bills through. An election will require a change in broadcast reporting that will favour the Conservatives and what polling expert Anthony Wells, describes as the Cameron effect will come more into play. Also Brown has become used to the trapping of power and may not want to place that at risk. He is actually enjoying the economic crisis....Lets not forget that he bottled out of an election when he was 10 points ahead. Despite a few large recent donations Labour remain financially strapped and will find it difficult to afford an election.
  
  Mandelson is however thought to be in favour of an early election as he considers it at worse a way to cut Labour's losses. He may well give Brown the backbone that he lacks to go for it.
  
  An interesting choice for Brown to make.
  
  One thing is certain, if an election is called in February, whoever wins will inherit a poisoned chalice with a worsening economy and 3m plus unemployed to come. A change of Government will not be able to stop that.
  
  Personally, I still think June 2010 is a more likely date, but we will see.

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