howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#1
today the respected ecomist think tank, ernst and young, opined that the recession has bottomed out.
they expect a recovery starting next spring,however things on the unemployment front will not get better before then.
good to hear some positive news for a change.
#2
And if you beleive that you will beleive anything.
#3
Apparently we will, because we vote in a new government every few years and retain a glimmer of hope.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#4
Howard - I suggest that you read the full detailed report.
It is very interesting and their report is very much in line with what I said on another thread last week.
You will find, however, they are much less optimistic than the figures being touted from the Treasury in advance of the budget, in the timing of the recovery, unemployment and the rate of growth. The rate of decline has certainly slowed but frankly it simply could not continue at the rate it was. You say the recession has 'bottomed out' that is not exactly what they say, it is much more complex than that.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#5
the same projected figures came from the cbi too.
no-one is claiming that problems are over and are not going to get worse in the short term, but the concensus of opinion is that the start of the recovery is a year away.
Ross Miller
- Location: London Road, Dover
- Registered: 17 Sep 2008
- Posts: 3,709
#6
and is the reduction in time taken for London and South East houses to sell (down to 80 days from 86 last month and the shortest since June last year) and the 2-4% sales price rises being reported a "suckers" bounce or the first signs of recovery in the housing market?
"Dream as if you'll live forever. Live as if you'll die today." - James Dean
"Being deeply loved by someone gives you strength,
While loving someone deeply gives you courage" - Laozi
Guest 673- Registered: 16 Jun 2008
- Posts: 1,388
#7
Don't know if that applies to Dover. My sister-in-law, who lives in Toronto, is just completing purchase of a repossession flat in Dover for half the price it was a year ago.
Sid Pollitt
#8
The two main headlines I see this morning are that inflation has dropped to a minus figure and that Tesco has made record profits.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#9
Tesco, indeed - companies that provide basic necessities at low prices do tend to do well out of recessions. Fund managers tend to increase their weighting in basics at such times for this reason.
As for the deflation figure. Again not unexpected due to the massive fall in interest rates and reduced housing costs (this was an RPI figure). What we need to worry about now is what is coming within the next two years, the potential for hyper-inflation due to 'quantitive easing'. One report forecasts an 8% inflation rate, not high by historical terms, but that does not necessarily represent the ceiling and how far it rises depends on just how out of control public spending is allowed to remain. This is a very good reason for massive public spending cuts. I notice that it is being trailed that Darling will announce some, quite modest, spending cuts, not enough and too late though.
Sid Pollitt
#10
I was just being helpful adding to the debate, but yet again we see the spirit of Private Fraser: Doomed, we're all doomed.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#11
Like you Sid, just adding to the debate.
These are important issues and background to the budget.
The last time we had deflation for a period was 1960 and there followed a long fight with inflation, once called the Briish Disease. I am pointing out the factors that are likely to give rise to this again to underline the need for substantial public spending cuts.
The last thing we need is 29% inflation as we had back in 1977.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#12
i have to hand it to you barry, you have managed to rubbish the budget before it has even happened.
chances are that our chancellor hasn;t even decided what will be in it yet.
i was going to nominate him as the worst ever chancellor then i remembered anthony barber, grinning from the tv screen, telling us that we would all be getting 10 bob off of our tax.
Ross Miller- Location: London Road, Dover
- Registered: 17 Sep 2008
- Posts: 3,709
#13
Oh Howard I am sure he has
"Dream as if you'll live forever. Live as if you'll die today." - James Dean
"Being deeply loved by someone gives you strength,
While loving someone deeply gives you courage" - Laozi
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#14
Howard - no, just discussing aspects of the economy.
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
#15
mr darling has promised us a bent 9 bob note in this years budget.