Dover.uk.com
If this post contains material that is offensive, inappropriate, illegal, or is a personal attack towards yourself, please report it using the form at the end of this page.

All reported posts will be reviewed by a moderator.
  • The post you are reporting:
     
    No problems people. The polls swing one way then the other. I did not mention either the one poll that has kept a 16% Conservative lead in each of it monthly polls since October (Angus Reid).

    The big problem with so much of this commentary on polls and in particular the interpretation some make to suggest a hung parliament, is the assumption of a uniform national swing. It just does not happen that way.

    The election will be one and lost in just 140 seats, the marginals, polling shows a 2-3% higher Lab to Con swing in these seats than the national swing. Making an allowance for this then most polls are still showing an overall Conservative majority.

    What Keith shows, of course, is that the best Labour can now hope for is a hung Parliament. they have given up any hope of winning.

Report Post

 
end link