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    There has been no discussion on here about the prospects for a General Election recently yet there has been much press speculation.

    Conventional wisdom is that Brown will wait until next year, the most likely date being May 6th 2010, the same day as the local elections. This would be in-line with Labour tactics in the past and would mean Brown would not be going into a General Election on the last possible date just a few weeks after a local election drubbing.

    But that does not take into account the damage currently being inflicted on the Government on many fronts. This week they are likely to see the worse Government performance in local/European elections ever. There is speculation that Labour may even come 4th in the European ones, previously unheard of for a Governing or main Opposition Party.

    A challenge to Brown is almost certain though no-one can say whether it will be sucessful. I think probably not. The expenses scandal and public pressure may well force Brown (or a successor) to call the General Election sooner. In that case October must be favourite for a couple of reasons:

    It is before the evenings get too dark and hamper campaigning. Politicians correctly do not like knocking on doors in the dark and the public dont like it either.

    It will also give the Parties enough time over the summer to get their houses in order and get rid of the worse offenders in the expenses scandal in an orderly way. Also the public will not like an election during holiday time of July/August, September for campaigning maybe.

    If the election is not in October then the May date becomes almost certain. I also think the liklyhood of Brown not leading Labour into the election increases once an October date is out of the way....Labour unrest over the summer would be brought to heal if an October election was in the offing, that unrest would re-surface with a vengance at the Labour Conference if no election.

    Interesting times and it will be fascinating to see how this develops as fall out from this weeks elections.

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