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    Its more complex than that howard. morale is at rock bottom and a lot of MPs may well be thinking that it will get worse and their best chance is an election sooner, then others will not be standing and may just want an end to this slow strangulation. Some will think their seat will be saved if Johnson replaces Brown and if that happens there will almost certainly be an immediate General Election (though not constitutionally required). Events are unfolding fast and the next 10 days will have some surprises. Rumours of two more quitting Ministers are abounding and Brown is reported to have started his reshuffle and is having problems with Ministers being stubborn - more sackings then.... Brown may not last a week.

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