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    Howard May 6th has been the most likely date since Brown bottled out in 2007....

    Nothing of what you have said about the bookies is new. We know the advantage that the Conservatives hold in the marginals and that data has been factored into the Andy Cooke swing calculator that I use, but most media stick to the outdated Uniform National Swing model.

    The determination to get rid of this failed and discredited Government will be the main driver at the election.

    Mike Smithson, the polling expert from politicalbetting.com yesterday placed a £200 bet on Labour getting less than 30% of the vote.

    As for the impact of the expenses scandal, there is some truth in what you say but we do have variouis by-election and local election results as a guide on that so it is not entirely unknown territory.

    As for the competition I am not asking you to place a bet so much as make a guess.

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