The post you are reporting:
William Hague writing in the Telegraph.
To pass her Brexit deal through the House of Commons, Theresa May needs a balance of terror among those who favour rival outcomes. She needs hardline Brexiteers to worry that if they don’t vote with her, Brexit won’t happen at all, and some ardent Remainers to think that unless they support her, Britain will “crash out” of the EU without a deal. Her problem is that, far from such a balance of terror existing, the very opposite prevails – a kind of equilibrium of complacency. Each set of opponents is smugly confident that, once her deal is voted down, their own view will prevail. The new year has been marked by all of them claiming fresh support and optimism.
Advocates of a second referendum have released a poll showing ever more people demanding one. Those who want the “Norway option” claim momentum behind them. And some who are relaxed about a no-deal outcome say the support for it is growing. With all groups, except the Cabinet, believing they are in a stronger position, it is no wonder that the parliamentary numbers have shown little sign so far of shifting. While there is indeed enthusiasm for each of these options, it cannot be true that all of them are simultaneously improving their chances of getting what they want. Somebody, somewhere, is obviously making a big mistake, but who is it? In particular I worry that my former colleagues on the Conservative benches, and many activists in their constituencies, are misjudging both the consequences of a no-deal Brexit and the chances of bringing it about.
The readiness to embrace this is understandable. Two years of maddening negotiations gives rise to a feeling of “let’s just go!” The apparent refusal of the EU to give legally binding assurances on the use of the Irish backstop reinforces the desire to walk away from it. The idea of telling Brussels we will not give them any money or obey any of their rules after March 29 is no small attraction. Since our referendum in 2016, the Italians have lurched to populism, the French have taken to the barricades, the Germans entered a political paralysis and Jean-Claude Juncker has become even more the caricature of an out-of-touch Commission.
Dire forecasts are easy to greet with mirth, as my old friend Boris did very effectively in these pages on Monday. Shortages of Mars bars are not frightening to the electorate. The Bank of England has foretold a deep recession, but suffers from previous inaccurate warnings, and its assumption that it would raise interest rates sharply, which no one believes, however true it might be. In the meantime, many financial firms have already prepared for a no-deal outcome, and the EU has started to announce measures it would take to keep flights in the air and the access of its banks to City markets.