The post you are reporting:
Iain Dale writing in the Telegraph.
On Wednesday evening I was travelling home on the 7.10 to Tonbridge when I sent out a rather enigmatic tweet: “I sense the political sands are about to shift. Dramatically.” Because David Davis has been a friend for more than 30 years people naturally concluded it was a reference to him possibly resigning the next day. It wasn’t. Even though the DD crisis was averted, possibly only temporarily, the next few weeks could be very dangerous for Mrs May. She has got next week’s parliamentary votes on the Brexit Bill to negotiate and then faces the possibility of ritual humiliation at the Brussels summit. On Thursday she did what she had to, to keep David Davis pissing inside the tent, but it comes to something when the standard of commentary centred on whether Davis bottled it or he was about to flounce. Few commentators could bring themselves to look at the real issue: the power and influence of an unelected civil servant called Olly Robbins. He is set to become the most controversial Number Ten adviser since Sir Alan Walters was forced out of his role as economic adviser to Margaret Thatcher by the then chancellor Nigel Lawson.
Theresa May is in thrall to Robbins and his partner in crime, the Cabinet Secretary Sir Jeremy Heywood. They have replaced Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill as her Svengalis. It appears to some Tory MPs that Robbins just has to whisper in her ear and she does what he says. Whatever the reality, perception matters. The Customs Union backstop issue is symbolic of a wider malaise to David Davis. I believe he went into the two meetings with the Prime Minister on Thursday morning determined to take back control of Brexit from Robbins and remind the Prime Minister of Norman Fowler’s famous comment on the Alan Walters situation: “Advisers advise, Ministers decide”. Robbins had even taken it upon himself to usurp Davis and speak to Michel Barnier directly. Like Charles Powell and Alastair Campbell before him, he has blurred the lines between adviser and minister. Davis had to address it. Time will tell how successful he was. Tomorrow evening, the PM will be addressing the Conservative Parliamentary Party. She won’t exactly be begging for her future but that’s how it may be interpreted. She simply cannot afford to lose any of the Brexit votes in parliament this week.
Luckily, Jeremy Corbyn has yet again ridden to her aid and refused to put a three line whip on the amendment on the customs union that is most dangerous for the government. Even so, it’s entirely possibly that they will still be defeated on another amendment. It all hangs on whether Messers Morgan, Clarke, Soubry and Grieve really want to be ahis alleged leadership manoeuvrings, but she wasn’t strong enough. What a difference a year makes – for him, at least.
Javid’s main opponent in a leadership contest would be Michael Gove. If you want a leader with a proven track record of getting things done, someone who is brimming with ideas and how to communicate them, and who is clear on what he wants from Brexit, look no further. But his perceived lack of voter friendliness and what he did to Boris Johnson in 2016 will count against him.
Jeremy Hunt is increasingly being mentioned as someone who could unite the party, and has undergone a transformation from Remain supporter to Brexiteer. Penny Mordaunt and Brandon Lewis have both impressed in their new jobs and ought to be mulling whether to dip their toes into the leadership waters, but both will need to define themselves. But however much some think Jacob Rees-Mogg is the answer, you seriously have to question their state of mind. He might well win among Conservative members, but he has to get to that stage first. He knows as well as anyone that he wouldn’t command the support of more than a few dozen MPs. However much I think judgment day may beckon for Theresa May, we’ve been here before and she’s got through similar crises. But one day she won’t.