A long road...
13 December 2012
...to recovery, says Spencer Dale the Chief Economist at the Bank of England.
...to recovery, says Spencer Dale the Chief Economist at the Bank of England.
We had Spencer along to a Dover Chamber of Commerce breakfast at Bluebirds some years ago as part of a regular round of consultation. All the forecasts he made then have turned to dust. Not a surprise because the Bank of England has the worse economic forecasting record of any European central bank.
A 'long road to recovery' need not be so long.
Bold action would speed up recovery. But being bold is not what a coalition government is all about.
If they were bold in 2010 and had placed economic consideration first we would now be in a far better position than we are in now. Yes tough decisions would have had to be made. They would have had to cut public spending much faster and further. They would have had to cut taxes, specially the economically damaging top rates. Bold supply side reforms would have been needed. Benefits cut.
Yes there would have been pain - but it would have been pain for a much shorter period. Far better than a long drawn out agony. With the right action we would now be much further down the road to recovery regardless of the international aspects.
OK - I do not know if, left to his own devices, Osborne would have been bold enough. But, the whispers of what has been happening behind the scenes certainly indicate that more would have been done and essential tax, spending and regulatory reforms have been blocked by Cable/Clegg and crew.
We are now paying for the electoral compromises required by coalition government. It is the price for indecision at the ballot box supporting minor parties at the expense of strong government when it has most been needed.
- Tom - all your words. I am addressing issues relative to the fiscal cliff, the bond bubble and the Eurozone government debt crisis daily in my working life so do not quote that at me.
I have stated simple, well known, facts.
The LimDems boast that they have 'softened' the economic policy and as such are admitting their fault in prolonging the pain.
Blame game, no - saying it as it is yes.
Ultimately - yes the voters are the ones who get the government they deserve, for voting in the economy wrecking regime in 1997 in the first place and for then leaving us with a undecisive result to 2010. - Even a huge majority does not guarantee strong government; that requires strong politicians of honesty and integrity and we haven't seen any of them at the top for a generation or more.
- That's right, Barry.
In 1945, Hitler wrote in his diary that it was all the fault of Mussolini, who in 1940 invaded Greece, when the objective should have been to reach the Urals by Summer 1941.
However, in Dover in 2010 the majority voted the Conservatives.
So no excuses, Barry! - weird...
- It's unlikely that history will repeat itself, Barry. The Conservative party has had its chance. They were voted into government, they had many chances.
- No Alexander - they were not. The public voted in a coalition.
Sadly at a time when we most need a strong government capable of making the decisions necessary to turn the economy around as we had in 1979. - Arguably Barry, it's only the LibDem supporters who voted for a coalition. Neither Tory nor Labour voters wanted one.
- Come come, Barry, the Tory component of the Government is the vast majority of it.
As for Osborne, his policies have been shot to pieces.
All the economists - including now one from the Bank of England who stepped back in August, are saying so. He has failed, and I really can't see the Conservative party getting another vote as they did in May 2010. Clearly they lost the plot.
BoE, useless
Lib-Dems, pathetic
G Osborn, soft in heart and head
The Voter, "Just who do they think they are?"
Then there's America and it's Fiscal Cliff, and the EU and the Euro zone. Gordon Brown...uncle Tom Cobley and all..
It's 'Déjà vu'...all over again.