The EU - In, Out or Part In?

15 December 2012

I personally want us completely out of the EU but with an arrangement such as the Swiss have, enabling free trade.  This will take a renegotiation of our relationship with the EU.   I have said consistently simple In/Out referendum will not achieve any purpose other than lock us in the grip of the EU forever.  It would spark a massive scare campaign that will backfire on those of us who want out.

Some people though claim that the rise in the UKIP vote indicates the the British want out.  This is a naive and foolish assumption.   What happens mid-term in polls bears little reflection on general elections.  With the traditional protest party part of the government UKIP has benefited instead of them.  Protest votes do not win an election and it is even wrong to assume such protest votes are anything to do with Europe.

So what exactly do the British people think?  The only tool we have for this are polls that target specifically the question of Europe.  Even then we need to be careful as such polls can just reflect current news headlines.  Even then an actual poll can turn very quickly the other way, specially if you have a hostage to fortune that enables a scare campaign against you.

YouGov have produced an analysis of a series of polls over a period of time and this gives a far better picture of what people think and is, perhaps, the reason for Cameron's public statements.

As you can see to get a majority you have to have a 'deal' negotiated, as I say, that can be sold to both those like me who want out and those who want a looser free trade arrangement.  This way we can avoid any hostage to fortune that a simple Yes/No would offer and at the same time satisfy the aspirations of the majority of us. The Swiss style arrangement would fit perfectly.

• Guest 710 wrote:
  Why not a European Union with a Euro-zone and a non Euro-zone with a 'Tobin Tax'. No special arrangements with peripheral non-member states?
• Guest 640 wrote:
  I cant see the rest of Europe agreeing to a Swiss style deal for the UK. It smacks of having all the benefits without doing any of the shovelling. The Swiss have been an odd case since time immemorial. As I understand it the Swiss are totally outside so have no input whatsoever to the direction the EU takes on anything at all..whether it be banking or trading or whatever. Totally the tail of the dog..it wags this way or that, but has no say on where it wags.
  
  Not ideal. Its also worth noting that when you take into account the younger vote as opposed to the older vote...the overall majority would want to stay in the EU. Younger voters have never known anything else and will not want to return to isolation. Therefore the longer the referendum is put off the more likely the yes vote is to win.
• Guest 655 wrote:
  The only benefit we want is free trade - as the EU export more to us than we export to them we are in a strong position. They can keep the rest.
  
  If the EU get difficult then we should be even more difficult back and cease all co-operation and implementation of EU diktats.
  
  Younger voters grow up and the scales fall from their eyes PaulB as they become more aware of the incompetence, corruption and interference of the EU. They said what you said when we first joined the EEC and yet we are now more Eurosceptic than ever.
  
  Tom - Why the 'Tobin Tax' ? - a proposal that would damage a major British export industry. Stuff the EU and their madcapped schemes designed to put more and more power and money in the hands of that corrupt organisation.
• Guest 710 wrote:
  Barry - Why covet, and or cherish the status of Switzerland?
  
  What if the EU were run in the way PaulB ran the forum, join by all means, but do take part or rejoin the ranks of the lookers-on?
  What is in it for the rest of Europe in having the UK as a member of the EU?
  The EU is as free to trade with the rest of the globe as we are, and as we would be on coming out. What is it that is to make the world and the EU beholden to us?
• Guest 696 wrote:
  An IN/OUT referendum would mean in or out.
  Any trading agreements with individual countries can be made afterwards.
  Britain is not Europe!