Ross Miller
- Location: London Road, Dover
- Registered: 17 Sep 2008
- Posts: 3,695
30 September 2008
21:126834I suspect no change in rates just yet
The market is desperate to see if Lloyds TSB re-price the buy out of HBOS - the uncertainty along with everything else is really bad for banking shares.
We also need to see which European bank is going to be "bailed out" tomorrow after Dexia today and Fortis yesterday....
"Dream as if you'll live forever. Live as if you'll die today." - James Dean
"Being deeply loved by someone gives you strength,
While loving someone deeply gives you courage" - Laozi
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
30 September 2008
22:026836i appreciate your honesty there barry, lilco simply says what is wrong without offering an alternative.
i was impressed today by the humility of cameron, rising above the party rubbish and offering, in effect, a coalition government.
we need the best brains working together to calmly work our way out of this present crisis.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Well we have seen the Senate vote for the rescue package and now it will go back to the House, slightly amended. Let us hope good sense prevails, I agree that this is far from perfect but only when the immediate crisis is dealt with can things move on and we can start picking up the pieces.
The UK market has responded strongly and, as it stands while I write this, much of the losses from the immediate aftermath of the House rejecting the package has been recovered.
I believe that if this passes we will see the market recover a lot more of the ground lost recently, barring another shock.
Anthony Bolton has said that the bear market is in the last stage and I do believe that the passing of this bill could see a more prolonged recovery in the markets next year, even though it will be a difficult year and our economy will almost certainly slide into recession. Unemployment is likely to rise over the next year because of the recession. Inflation, however should fall back and interest rates should respond by falling. I would expect a resurgence though of inflation in 2 years time or so due to money supply issues and there will be a need to reign back on this, perhaps tax rises and certainly Government spending cuts will be needed before things can get better.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Anthony Bolton was interviewed yesterday. Now retired he said he was back investing in equities and he spoke about the crisis, here is what he said:
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On the financial crisis: 'Well I have to say I haven't seen anything quite like this and the credit crisis that led to the banking crisis has some similarities with the 1970s which I did experience but the fact that it's global and the extent of it is quite different.'
On whether it can get worse: 'It can certainly get worse although I think a lot of the ingredients are now there to restore confidence - at the heart of banking is confidence
On bank deposit guarantees: 'We've seen that come in Ireland and one of the problems in this global world that we live in is it's quite difficult for authorities to do it in one market and not to have effects on other markets. So I think it's possible that will happen here as well. It would certainly restore confidence thought it might be quite a costly move.'
On investing: 'Investing in the stock market at first looks so easy - you buy when it's low and sell when it's high. But when you actually live though it it's much more difficult. All the environment tries to make you do the opposite of what it should do - it sucks you in when markets are high and the world looks wonderful.
_______________________
Do not invest just because he says so - get advice.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
lost me there, who is anthony bolton, and what did he do when he was not retired.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Anthony Bolton was the manager of the Fidelity Special Situations Fund howard. He was basically one of the top investment managers, someone who's track record means everyone in finance (and many others) listens to what he says. I have used his fund myself over the years and am very pleased I did so.
To put it another way, he is to investment what a combination of George Best, Bobby Charlton and Bobby Moore would be to football. (They are about all the footballers I can name!!!)