howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
out this evening the organisation of economic and co-operative development named the UK as the best performing economy out of the G7 counries over the second quarter.
apparently this works out at 3.1% growth annually.
seems like gordon may just have been right all along.
Not if you read the whole report instead of cherry picking.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8606499.stm
The findings are generally ambiguous although cautiously optimistic. They are predicting strong growth for the UK while the rest of Europe struggles. Given that our main export market is Europe I don't see how we can avoid being entangled in a slow-down that is likely to threaten the recovery of more than just the UK.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Two can cherry pick Sid. The OECD's chief economist Pier Carlo Padoan(?) says raising National Insurance contributions poses a greater threat to the recovery than would raising VAT. (Sky News) This provides a clear vindication for Cameron's pledge to block Brown's NI increase.
The British Chambers of Commerce warned that the UK's recovery was weak and there remained a risk of setbacks in the future.
The OECD said that overall growth would be slower in the main industrialised nations during the first half of 2010.
Darling based his budget on an expectation of a 3.5% compound economic growth over 4 years. That remains way above any realistic expectation.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
no cherry picking from me sid, i just stated what the report said.
i am nowhere near clever enough to understand the undercurrents.
Guest 645- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 4,463
Actually the British Chamber of Commerce said that the UK economy was growing stronger than expected but had to be weary of a 'double dip'...meaning if the Tories were elected.
Marek
I think therefore I am (not a Tory supporter)
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Marek - I have been warning of a 'double dip' since early in the recession as a direct result of Labour's policies and did so after the PBR in 2008. I said only a couple of months ago that a double dip is more likely than ever. What the timing of that second dip will be is now more uncertain. The European problems look likely to exacerbate this in the medium term outlook. Labour are trying to spin this but their economics are those of the madhouse.
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
barryw,a double dip we may get but when the torys or if they get in the bouble will burst and we will become a third world country with a double d creadit rating.
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
The OECD report is good news for the UK..we are better placed than any other economy with the exception of Canada to come out of this recession in good shape. This item cropped up on the very late Question Time last night and on various TV programmes. The Conservatives are not denying its good news.
The question now as asked by David Dimbleby last night, and by John Stapleton this morning on GMTV to David Cameron...does this mean that Gordon Brown has got it right all along ??
He may well indeed have got it right.
Sid have made your link LIVE above. You can do that yourself by using the URL box which can be found amongst the smileys. Click on that URL box and type between the two boxes that appear....and bobs yer uncle!
Ooh, "on the job training", just for me! Many thanks Paul, much appreciated.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
The problem though is the huge debt hangover that threatens to strangle the slow and painful recovery. Brian should realise that the threat to the credit rating comes from not dealing with the deficit quickly enough and it is Labour who are playing fast and loose with that. The NI rise is utter madness - you should not place a tax on jobs at a time when you have the whisper of a recovery, jobs will be lost as a result and Darling has admitted that.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
the recovery seems to be going well at the moment.
tuned into the news this morning, heard that car sales were up 26% in march, house prices rising steadily, marks and spencer(always a good barometer of retail spending) expect to announce much improved sales figures.
unemployment conrtinues to fall.
Guest 653- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,540
And that's probably despite the Government, not because of.
Roger
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Howard- lets not get sniffy about a recovery, it must be welcomed and is good news. We must remember though that we were effected for a longer period and was much deeper into it that other countries. It is the policies of the Government that exacerbated the problem and the banking problems in particular are entirely down to Brown's regulatory reforms.
Sadly though I remain unconvinced that things really are getting better in a fundamental way. I am aware of at least 5 Dover businesses that will be closing up due to problems during the course of coming months. Some big gaps will be left in our town centre. I can also say from direct knowledge and reports provided to me that the housing market, a key fundamental in our economy, remains in serious problems locally here in Dover.
It is far from over yet and as I said before I do consider a second dip to be very likely though I hope I am wrong.
We have a massive debt hangover, not just Government but also individuals. If after May 6th the new Government does not instil confidence in the markets and proceed quickly and immediately with an improved deficit reduction plan, the bottom is likely to drop out of the bond markets, the UK credit rating will be downgraded increasing the cost of borrowing, interest rates will shoot up, more businesses will go bust. The cuts needed in public spending will then be even greater than now.
The Labour Government are playing fast and loose for political reasons to provide them with clear blue water between them and the Conservatives. The situation for Government spending is worse than anyone is willing to admit to.
In the spirit of being helpful at this difficult time, I have a few bags of sand in my garage for anyone who hasn't got any to stick their head into.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
i don';t doubt anything in your post barry, however i have not heard a word from the main parties yet on the subject of spending cuts or higher taxes.
the blues today even denied they had plans to put up VAT.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
On the contrary - the Conservatives are the only Party that has been open about some of the cuts planned.
Projects like the NHS national database and the id cards.
Freeze on public sector pay for those on more than £18000 pa
Regional development agencies will go as will the pointless regional government structures.
Reductions in the costs of Parliament, fewer MPs, a reduction in Ministers pay and a freezing of their pay for 5 years.
That is just a few items from the top of my head. Not enough but it is a start and a lot more than has been admitted to by any other party.
Add to that the cuts in waste that the Government adviser Gershon identified, a man now working with the Conservatives and a start is being made in tackling the deficit while reducing some planned tax rises.
It is not enough but as I say a lot than than others have identified.
As for VAT, yes I dont doubt that it will not be touched. Conservative plans are to address this more from cuts than tax rises because tax increases can and are counter productive with taxation at the levels they are at now. In their plans the only tax rises they plan are not to block all of those the Government has programmed in, indeed some of these will be set a time limit. The problem we have at its core is one of excessive spending and it is that which must be addressed. I have a graphic that demonstrates the different approaches:
You can see from this that the Tories will tax less and as I say those increased taxes represent most of what Labour are already increasing and not new taxes.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
barryw,im still not convinced on tory polacys or these pye charts you keep throwing up.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
barry
i have no problem with the first paragraph in post 16, especially the bit about the development agencies.
surely the county council should have all the funding that the quangos get?
you mention about the limiting of pay rises for public sector workers earning over 18 grand, where does the party stand on public sector pensions. this is a very hot issue leading up to the election.
we have an army of civil servants that will be basing their vote on the answer they get to this question.
finally, william hague said categorically that there were no planned VAT increases.
why did he say that when we all know differently?
Could they be pie in the sky perhaps?
Seriously though, has anyone actually seen a Manifesto yet? All parties have had weeks/months to prep for this election, but there seems to be a shortage of info to compare and analyse.
Guest 660- Registered: 14 Mar 2008
- Posts: 3,205
Didn't I see that KCC have more officers earning more than £100,000 a year than any other Council,no waste there then.Chop them in half and reduce thier pay by 50%,£18.000 and over pay freeze is fine,but if I was earning £18,000 and my pay was frozen it would be tough but if I was earning £100,000 would a pay cut be difficult.Stick up taxes for all those.
If you knew what I know,we would both be in trouble!
