Oxford economics have done some analysis of the Brown stimulus. I read about it here:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3303481/howbrowns-stimulus-will-destroy-jobs.thtml
It blows Brown's policy for dealing with the recession out of the water.
It agrees that in 2009 35,000 jobs will be created (a drop in the water against 2.5m lost) as a result of the VAT reduction but in 2010 when the VAT is re-imposed there will then be 30,000 jobs lost as a result. It then gets worse because the NI increases kick in and this results in much bigger jobs losses in the following two years, 91,000 in 2012 and 84,000 in 2013.
It is damming stuff.