howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#21
quite right about the cash strapping of councils by the government, the problem people have is that the blues go along with this by their silence.
if there is a change of government, promises have been made to freeze council tax for two years.
surely that will make things even worse?
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#22
Howard - 'the blues' are being open about the need to cut spending and Councils will need to do their bit.
The point here is Labour double standards, trying to claim that cuts now will damage the economy while doing so via the back door.
Guest 674- Registered: 25 Jun 2008
- Posts: 3,391
#23
Barryw
interesting post 16 that you also think labour will be the majority party at the next election(reading between the lines of your post)
interesting how I said this some months ago, and we are now faced with it, and we could even see labour as the major party in a hung parlianment
you heard it months ago from me
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#24
No Keith - I remain convinced that there will be a Conservative outright win, full stop.
#25
I pay little attention to polls if only because the numbers asked are usually so small and the demographic inconsistent. Fact is as Dave1 says, there is only really going to be a choice of Tory or Labour for the sensible voter (apologies to Vic) at the upcoming General Election.
There is a long way still to go before that election and we haven't really seen the full impact of quantitative easing on the economy, but, inflation is already moving ahead of Government targets and is set to get worse. This will undoubtedly impact in the minds of voters who see real incomes drop dramatically and costs increase significantly. In other words, the feel good factor is going take a good kicking in the coming months. In that scenario, which most economists believe will happen soon, voters will drop the incumbent government like a stone. Their current blagging about the state of the economy won't be able to hide the truth for much longer.
As for the Italians, well, they will surrender and the Yanks will sort them out as usual.
So, my advice is don't pay any serious attention to the polls, but watch the economy.
Finally, I do actually support the Governments policy of quantitative easing, without which many more banks and financial institutions would have gone to the wall creating an even more devastating impact on all our lives. It was the right choice by the rebellious Chancellor.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#26
I dont entirely disagree over QE Sid but they have made so many other mistakes. The VAT fiasco for one is really going to bite them in Q1. So much of their fiscal easing has been misdirected and so it remains. Time to shift the burden of the recession away from business and onto the public sector with cuts in public spending and tax cuts for hard pressed businesses. Clearly that means a balancing act between stimulating business growth and savings to reduce the deficit, it is not an either or....
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#27
sid and barry
you are talking about things that the electorate in general do not really understand, most are too involved hanging on to their jobs, paying mortgages etc.
i have been reading many political commentators, the concensus seems to be that the vast majority have the same contempt for the brown(red) government as they did for the major administration in 1997.
the problem is they are asking questions of the pretenders and are not getting any.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#28
The electorate may not understand Howard but these things will affect their ability to pay their mortgage and pay the bills.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#29
i think that you are missing the point here barry.
the electorate will vote only on what they understand, things such as quantative easing mean the same as the "gold standard" years ago.
what they are looking at is the two major parties striping them up, with higher vat, probably higher income tax and most certainly cuts in public services.
will they want that sort of change?
the campaign should be very interesting when it officially starts.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#30
Howard - are you saying then that politicians should lie to the public and pretend that cuts and/or higher taxes are not necessary? Brown is trying that and it could be argued that as a result he has narrowed the lead but I am not convinced.
The Conservatives have a more difficult message to get accross but I believe they must do so because if they get elected without a mandate to do what is necessary governance will be impossible. Indeed based on their current showing if Labour get elected or there is a hung Parliament then there will be an economic meltdown.
Guest 660- Registered: 14 Mar 2008
- Posts: 3,205
#31
Barry the Tories can say virtually what they like because they don't have the numbers so they can say we will do a) or b) then when if they ever get in power they then adopt this stance well we were going to do that but because of finances we cant.People are not being fooled by empty promises.
Yes we have just got through a large depression but GB stuck with it and kept the country running DC can't take that away.Yes we have to pay for it now but the panic measures being banned about by the Tories will not convince the general public especially as they don't know the figures.
If you knew what I know,we would both be in trouble!
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#32
JHG - the reality is that Brown's incompetence made the recession a hell of a lot worse than it need be. We were among first in and the last out (though it remains questionable as to whether we are out, a dead cat bounce is more likely). People will not forget that it was Brown who boasted no more boom and bust, just before the biggest ever bust. Our problems arise because he actually believed that nonsense and ran the economy accordingly.
We are now facing a second dip and the longest and slowest recovery in the industrialised world alongside a massive debt hangover.
Can you expalin why every single Labour Government in history has left office with unemployment higher than when it started?
can you also explain why every Labour Government has ended in economic disaster?
I can and will address that in a future blog.
#33
JGH, you said "Yes we have to pay for it now" which is so far from the truth to be almost laughable if it weren't such a serious matter.
Make no mistake, the economic mess caused by the recession will still be being paid for by our childrens grandchildren. So you should have said "Yes we have to pay for it for generations to come".
I also notice the action on public spending being proposed includes ring fenced spending for certain areas. Already Sweden has taken action in the same vein, only they have frozen spending in all public areas. A Labour chap on tv yesterday concurred that we should be doing the same as our need is greater than Swedens.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#34
barry
i am not advocating anyone telling porkies to the electorate.
at present the blues speak about immediate spending cuts, then tell us that the health service and education will actually improve.
the truth is that direct and indirect taxes must rise, why do they not say how much by?
they know the level of debt, so have no excuse not to have done the sums to work out how much has to be recouped from the taxpayer.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#35
Howard it is simply more complicated than that. They need to get their hands on the Government's computer modelling for a start.
As far as the Conservatives are concerned tax rises would be the last option, because they can be very damaging to growth, and its economic growth within the private sector that needs stimulating. We are already far too highly taxed. Some taxes will have to be reduced in order to get growth moving as well so its quite a conumdrum. Public sector cuts must come first and foremost.
#36
Just to put the economic position in perspective I note that the pound fell 1.7% against the Zimbabwean dollar yesterday!
This shows just how much faith the money markets have in our 'recovery'!
