Captain Haddock
- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 7,848
From Sky News - Lewis Goodall
In 2017 I went to a pool club in Northfield, near where I grew up in Birmingham. Whatever was being said nationally, it was where I realised the Labour vote was holding up.
It didn’t feel like this time.
Labour vote felt much softer.
Corbyn a much a bigger problem than in 2017. Then he barely seemed known.
The vitriol for JC now v strong from working class voters, mainly fuelled by Facebook ads. Repeated mentions of links to the IRA/terrorism, which have been circulated online
Brexit wasn’t an issue in 2017 for many of these voters. I remember a man looking at me like a fool when I connected the issue with voting Labour.
A complete transformation now. Party actively blamed for blocking Brexit/“ignoring our vote”. Tory messaging highly effective.
That said very little love from Lab inclined voters for Johnson, generally considered a knave or a clown. Most who voted Lab in 17 said they wouldn’t vote, or end up voting reluctantly for party at last moment.
However, Tory vote solid behind him in a way which JC not matching.
I’m cognisant that v often once you scratch the surface of some of the “I’ve voted Labour all my life but...” people, they stopped voting Lab years ago. There was a fair bit of that. But that wasn’t it. These were people who voted Lab in 17 and who are now in a different place.
Talk to activists and candidates this a repeated theme across the country. Labour’s fortunes resurrecting a bit in more middle class areas; but one theme is “it’s awful in the estates.” You hear it repeatedly. There’s truth to it, despite the fact there is no love of the Tories.
As one MP said to me just today “Corbyn is the far bigger issue than Brexit.” Among other things, beneath the surface, two years worth of online material has destroyed his reputation in these communities. You ask why they hate him so much, they can’t always answer. They just do.
Brexit though has damaged Labour in a more invidious way. Many working class communities feel that the Brexit process has proven that political change isn’t possible. Therefore, they are especially wary of the man and party promising them most change.
It’s like they don’t want to risk being fooled or taken in. So either won’t vote at all or gravitate to the man and party promising them little.
They’re so caustic about politics, that though they largely believe Johnson is a liar, it’s immaterial, it’s priced in and don’t care.
Then just across town, there’s the young. Every single one of the under 25s voting Labour. Virtually all of the 30 somethings too: “best Christmas present we could have is a Labour govt” one said. Excitement is real.
This for Lab perhaps party’s best hope now. So many young registered for the first time. If there’s a surprise in this election, it will probably be why.
Corbynism has succeeded in creating a highly successful generational politics but failed in reconnecting the party with its core support, which once we were told it would. Perhaps it was always unrealistic.
In terms of demographic change, changes to the electoral map, changing composition suburbs and dormitory towns it feels Labour could have a really successful coalition on its hands.
In two electoral cycles time. Right now, it feels trapped
In the meantime, I can understand why Lab continues with the NHS “being on the table” attack. In a sea of Tory attack lines which were regurgitated verbatim, this was the only Labour island. Something which clearly gave those voters thinking about not turning out pause.
Caveats to this picture overall
-not that many Lab/Tory switchers
-lots of undecideds still, prob more likely lean Lab
-youth vote
-WASPI has been quite effective
-does Neilgate get through? (Plays into widespread suspicion of Johnson)
-Tactical voting
Oh and power of Lab groundgame
But it just feels like the Tories are on the advance in so many places, it’s hard to see how they’re not lucky enough in enough places to get at least a small majority.
But things are highly volatile. Lots of undecideds and Lab’s best hope is that there’s so little enthusiasm for the other side either and the psychological barrier which is still *enormous* to going Tory. It’s not over. But it is endlessly fascinating.
"Shall we go, you and I, while we can? Through the transitive nightfall of diamonds"
Weird Granny Slater
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 7 Jun 2017
- Posts: 2,980
'Focus groups'? FFS
'Pass the cow dung, my dropsy's killing me' - Heraclitus
Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 7,848
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 43% (+1)
LAB: 34% (-)
LDEM: 13% (-)
BREX: 3% (-1)
GRN: 2% (-1)
via @PanelbaseMD, 04 - 06 Dec
Chgs. w/ 28 Nov
Only another six days for Boris 'not to screw it up'!
"Shall we go, you and I, while we can? Through the transitive nightfall of diamonds"
Jan Higgins
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 5 Jul 2010
- Posts: 13,782
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
I try to be neutral and polite but it is hard and getting even more difficult at times.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 7,848
#MeToo !
"Shall we go, you and I, while we can? Through the transitive nightfall of diamonds"
Button
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 22 Jul 2016
- Posts: 3,003
You recall that '£350m for the NHS' bus back in the heady days of 2016? Well, looks like the money has turned up again:
https://natalieelphicke.com/delivering-better-healthcare/. Probably fell down the back of a seat.
(Not my real name.)
Keith Sansum1
- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,823
Only reason tory vote could be closer is she is unknown in many parts
but the labour candidate is unknown to
The idea you have to vote labour to get the tory out
is fine if you have faith in the labour candidate and party
most havn't
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
Jan Higgins- Location: Dover
- Registered: 5 Jul 2010
- Posts: 13,782
I agree Keith, Nathalie is not known by the ordinary voter and has not exactly promoted herself. Meanwhile her Labour opponent has managed to get her face and ideals all over Facebook, often being pictured with her little one...................Has kissing other peoples babies now gone out of fashion?
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
I try to be neutral and polite but it is hard and getting even more difficult at times.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Button- Location: Dover
- Registered: 22 Jul 2016
- Posts: 3,003
I gave a politician my baby to kiss and he bit it in the head!
(Not my real name.)
Sue Nicholas- Location: river
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 6,017
Just..been to a Christmas Fayre in the home opposite me.Had a verbal from the former Labour Agent who is in there.Well he got some looks I think the staff and stall holders were horrified he could be so rude.One or two whispered in my ear we support Conservative.I only went for a quiet cuppa and cake.I remained my dignified Conservative self.
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
so you lot evan labour keith are voting for an unknown tory person.
Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 7,848
'Unknown' possibly but quite a decent CV for an MP?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natalie_Elphicke
Beats 'has taught in various Public Schools'?
"Shall we go, you and I, while we can? Through the transitive nightfall of diamonds"
Weird Granny Slater- Location: Dover
- Registered: 7 Jun 2017
- Posts: 2,980
I don't think that's the message, BD. Certainly my house is guaranteed 100% unknown-Tory-person-free.
'Vote callous. Vote Tory.'
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a-callous-party-has-thrown-my-husband-to-the-wolves-and-left-my-family-in-fear-scgppqllrButton likes this
'Pass the cow dung, my dropsy's killing me' - Heraclitus
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
bob, cv's can be manufacturd to say anything you like.
Jan Higgins- Location: Dover
- Registered: 5 Jul 2010
- Posts: 13,782
Brian
It is election time we all know that politicians like to exaggerate but at least you can verify a cv unlike some of things and promises we all get told.
Brian Dixon likes this
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
I try to be neutral and polite but it is hard and getting even more difficult at times.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Keith Sansum1- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,823
Ex Labour agent Sue?
Surprize if he was there?
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
Keith Sansum1- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,823
Long time Since Dover had an agent for labour
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
