Guest 664- Registered: 23 Mar 2008
- Posts: 1,039
Captain Haddock
- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 8,005
Looks like just another 'nutter'.
The problem is that it is part of the human condition that we enjoy being scared, hence Grimms Tales for children and Horror Films for grown ups.
Those of us working even peripherally to security in the 70s/80s will remember a plethora of right wing/left wing groups causing mayhem and carnage. All the waccos do nowadays is either march to Dover to lob a couple of bricks or vote for Corbyn!
Meanwhile somewhere tonight there's a journalist knocking off another 1000 easy words asking 'Do We Have to Learn To Live In an Age of Violence' or some such rubbish for the Daily Mail.
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"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
Guest 664- Registered: 23 Mar 2008
- Posts: 1,039
Lies, damned lies and statistics... I am sure the figures for the 70s and 80s were bumped up significantly by numerous massacres by several indigenous terror groups such as the IRA, ETA, Baader-Meinhof- and Palestinian "terrorists", involving many casualties per incident . I also imagine incidents like Lockerbie where hundreds died in a single attack explain the high figure for 1988, for example.
I can never remember a time when individuals could be randomly attacked just about anywhere by other individuals seemingly acting alone, randomly and opportunistically, usually inspired by the pseudo-state that is ISIS.
Another way of looking at the stats is that there have been more casualties caused by ISIS than from all other sources put together, globally, in the last two years than in any single year for all but one of the last 20.
Let's not get complacent - the threat from ISIS is real .
There you go, didn't need 1000 words, I don't work for the Daily Mail, and this is free of charge. ;)
Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 8,005
"Let's not get complacent - the threat from ISIS is real"
Correct.
What started as the anti-Soviet jihad in Afghanistan in the 1980s (which 'we' backed) has now morphed into a war against the 'far enemy' (initially the USA, now post-enlightenment civilisations in general) under a generic 'Islamic' heading.
We are where we are however and I don't think it helpful to either overstate the threat (nor to ignore the fact that a number of policy errors on our side have allowed and continue to allow its growth).
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"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
Guest 664- Registered: 23 Mar 2008
- Posts: 1,039
We (the UK, and the West) have made many policy errors in the Middle East going back to the First Word War and before.
I don't see that justifies what some in the ISIS leadership are urging their followers to do, i.e. attack civilians in the West in their daily lives in situations such as that in Nice:
“The tiniest action you do in the heart of their land is dearer to us than the biggest action by us … There are no innocents in the heart of the lands of the crusaders.”
He encouraged lone wolf attacks during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which starts early in June, “to win the great award of martyrdom”.
We may have lived in fear at one time of being blown up in an IRA bombing, but no-one ever thought an IRA sympathiser would pull a knife on a civilian in the street, or a train, or drive a truck at a crowd on a promenade, or gun down people at a rock concert.
Be in no doubt, ISIS are actively trying to secure nuclear material and would not hesitate to use it on a western city - maybe London.
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Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 8,005
Andrew,
As ever it's complicated and I can think of no conflict in history solved by 'wiping out' the opposition!
I can assure you I 'get real' having been reading about the history, politics and sociology of the Middle East for years as well as attending talks on the subject.
Here's a recent background paper to some of the players behind the recent events in Europe you might find interesting:-
http://henryjacksonsociety.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/IS-leaders-report.pdfhoward mcsweeney1 likes this
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
Guest 664- Registered: 23 Mar 2008
- Posts: 1,039
Thanks Captain Haddock, although unfortunately I do not have time to read the paper.
Are you saying the survival of ISIS is in any way desirable? I think most people forced to live under this regime might think differently also.
The world would be better off without ISIS.
Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 8,005
Andrew, the problem is that it is difficult to understand exactly what the 'defeat of ISIS' would consist of.
We are not dealing with either a war between Nation States or even a civil war where eventually some sort of political settlement grants quiescence if not peace.
ISIS is merely the manifestation of Wahabi /Salafi Islamic Terrorism affecting Europeans which can be seen worldwide from Boko Haram in West Africa through to the Mujahedeen Council in Indonesia.
Wahhabism has been spread from our 'best friends' (sic) the Saudis whereas Salafism has both risen and fallen at various times in the history of Islam.
Matters are not helped by our 'new best friends' (sic) the Iranians who are exploiting the Sunni/Shia schism for political ends and backing Hizb ut Tahrir who oppose ISIS (but whose stated aim is the reestablishment of a Caliphate in the Muslim World). Iran's aim is the gain a sphere of influence running from the Lebanon through Syria and Iraq to Iran itself, hence backing for Assad and military aid to Iraq following Obama's disastrous decision to 'bring the troops home'.
When you add into the mix tribal allegiances which transcend borders (some of the enmities between groups in Afghanistan go back hundreds of years) + political pragmatism which means that support is only given to leaders as long as they favour their supporters the future for peace in the region does not look good.
Yes. The world would be better of without ISIS but I don't think we are going to see this in our lifetime.
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"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
Guest 664- Registered: 23 Mar 2008
- Posts: 1,039
Captain Haddock, whoever (s)he may be:
The defeat of ISIS - Islamic State of Iraq and Syria - means wiping it from the map. That of course is the aim of the Iraqi and Syrian governments (among many others), who understandably want their territory back. Hopefully in the process as many of their leadership as possible will be taken out of the equation. I think it is simpler than you suppose.
Destroying it as a so-called state is a very achievable aim.
Of course, that will not mean the end of the threat from Islamic fundamentalism, in its many forms. There is no ultimate solution to that. As long as Islam and western civilisation both exist there will be adherents of the former seeking to damage the latter.
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howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Just giving a general overview here but once the unpleasantness of the crusades ended there were many centuries without clashes between Islam and Christianity. The former stayed in the east with other non christian religions and the latter in the west. Many European countries colonised other countries but were quite happy to bleed the countries dry without trying to get people to change religion. In the last war there were many Muslims that volunteered to fight and sometimes die with the allies.
Since those days people from the "religion of peace" have moved to the west and Christianity seems to be slowly dying out leaving some of the incomers seeing a chance to take control and change the way of life in the West. Sharia courts abound and officially they are second best to the real courts but many Muslim women accept judgements from the men that run it.
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
it seems to me that an alone knife / truck driving nutter gets cauterized as a isis terrorist,that person may have mental health problems or under the influence of booze or drugs or both.
ps.i am not sticking up for any one here,but just saying
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Guest 664- Registered: 23 Mar 2008
- Posts: 1,039
Nature abhors a vacuum. Islam is seizing an opportunity in the West, as you say, Howard - although it's a slightly different, if related, topic to terrorism, of course.
Christianity is not dying out globally and is a boom religion in China, for example.
This is quite enlightening:
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/religious-projections-2010-2050/
As you can see, Islam is catching up. In certain areas that will no doubt happen faster than others.
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howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Have to disagree with the statistics/projections in your link Andrew. When a census comes around many tick the box "C of E" although most have not seen the inside of a church since they were christened other than the odd wedding or funeral. Islam will catch up very quickly as the statistics show that those of Pakistani or Bangla Deshi origin breed at 6 times the rate of us locals.
Guest 664- Registered: 23 Mar 2008
- Posts: 1,039
Howard, if you look closely they are global, not UK only.
I didn't do the research, just quoting them.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
If this had been in Western Europe or the US it would have been headlines for days.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37154294Guest 1033- Registered: 23 Aug 2013
- Posts: 509
I have to stick my oar in here, and remind you that people like Menachem Begin and Martin McGuinness, to name only two of many, have both been involved in peace negotiations with the United States after having both been members of anti-British terrorist groups, but as soon as 'our allies across the pond' get attacked, a whole sh#t storm starts. Bear in mind please that the twin towers were not far from the area where collections used to be made 'for the cause'.
I haven't made this point to excuse or defend any terrorists, but the two named above were both guilty of terrorism, and have been accepted by mainstream politics, so we might see members of ISIS in the UK parliament one day.
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howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Thought it had gone quiet recently and rather hoped such acts were petering out.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43683687Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 8,005
And, as ever, we all hope against hope that perhaps this time it's actually 'nothing to do with religion' ...............
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
Weird Granny Slater
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 7 Jun 2017
- Posts: 3,030
'Pass the cow dung, my dropsy's killing me' - Heraclitus
Guest 1535- Registered: 27 May 2015
- Posts: 399
Yeah so if you want to save our churches start going to Church because our Churches are being sold off or closed and when SHTF don't ask God to help then. Evil will only grow if you allow it and DEAR GOD is our world allowing it.
If only everyone could be kind and honest what a better world we would be in.
Judith Roberts likes this"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"