Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
17 December 2008
08:5711059February 26th is the date pencilled in by Conservative Whips as a likely General Election date.
The considerations for Brown around this date are interesting:
For: Things are not likely to get any better for him. 2009 will be a very hard year and even now it is becoming clear that the PBR is a flop and the public will catch on to this increasingly. The budget in March will itself blow the lid on the PBR. Unemployment will start to soar towards 3m possible 3.5m. David Cameron will find it easier and easier to get his message accross during the year as the recession deepens. By the Autumn Darling's gamble and huge borrowing spree will be shown to have failed. Labour have booked poster sites around the UK.
Against: There is likely to be a wave of redundancies in the New Year just as people are getting their Christmas bills through. An election will require a change in broadcast reporting that will favour the Conservatives and what polling expert Anthony Wells, describes as the Cameron effect will come more into play. Also Brown has become used to the trapping of power and may not want to place that at risk. He is actually enjoying the economic crisis....Lets not forget that he bottled out of an election when he was 10 points ahead. Despite a few large recent donations Labour remain financially strapped and will find it difficult to afford an election.
Mandelson is however thought to be in favour of an early election as he considers it at worse a way to cut Labour's losses. He may well give Brown the backbone that he lacks to go for it.
An interesting choice for Brown to make.
One thing is certain, if an election is called in February, whoever wins will inherit a poisoned chalice with a worsening economy and 3m plus unemployed to come. A change of Government will not be able to stop that.
Personally, I still think June 2010 is a more likely date, but we will see.
Sid Pollitt
17 December 2008
13:5111065Pencilled in by the Tory spin machine more likely. There is no justification for an election in February, it just more headlines for the increasingly desperate oppostion. What's this Cameron effect then? I imagine it's a little like a Bagpuss effect - when Cameron does nothing his friends will also do nothing
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
17 December 2008
14:1211067You need to read up a bit more on what your Party machine is saying, not that you can rely on them for any truth, Sid.
We will see who gets desperate over the next year or so.
Guest 660- Registered: 14 Mar 2008
- Posts: 3,205
17 December 2008
16:3811069I will have a fiver on it Barry because it won't happen then,my hunch is May.
If you knew what I know,we would both be in trouble!
Sid Pollitt
17 December 2008
17:3611073By saying we will see over the next year or so Barry you are admitting that it isn't going to be in February and is another non-story from you. I do not myself know when the election will be and have no party machine strategies or spin stories winging into my inbox, I do not think though that it will be in February as it may be too cold at that time. No PM would call an election when there might be snow on the ground.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
17 December 2008
18:2411076Sid - do read what is written...
I quote the last line of my original post
"Personally, I still think June 2010 is a more likely date, but we will see."
I was raising this as a point of discussion based on current speculation that is going on.
As for your 'no PM would call an election in February' - I need only refer you to 1974 to demonstrate just how wrong you are...
I have given the reasoning behind the February speculation and if the pros I quoted outweight the antis and Mandelson provides Brown with a spine then 'snow on the ground' would not matter.
Sid Pollitt
17 December 2008
18:4311077You dont think there will be an election in February but felt the need to share Tory Party spin. There was the same nonsense on the Daily Politics today with no-one there thinking it would be in February either. A non story from an unimportant party possibly. In my opinion, in this century, it would be unwise to have an election when it may be inclement weather.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
17 December 2008
19:0111078I will treat your last post Sid with the utter contempt it deserves.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
17 December 2008
20:1911082absolutely no chance of an election in february, very unlikely next year too.
who would call an early election when they are behind in all polls?
the average voter will show scant interest in the pbr or any other statistics.
they will vote on the basis that they have not been kicked out of their house because of a job loss or drop in income.
i speak as one that has studied all the red-tops!!
that must be true because barry said so.
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
17 December 2008
22:5911090you got a snowballs chance in hell.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
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18 December 2008
00:0811092I dont know exactly what you are talking about Brian.
howard, the whole point is that next year there will be an increasing number of people suffering just what you refer to and that is why some believe that a february election may happen. It is all to do with damage limitation because by the Autumn, possibly earlier, Labour will have blown it.
In the circles in which I move people do talk about the 'useless' PBR and the wasted money going into the VAT cut. True they are mostly not red top readers, The Times, Independent, Grauniad and Telegraph mostly I would guess but they do tend to be people who actually do vote (in all directions) and are from all backgrounds.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
18 December 2008
08:3911102barryw i cant see an election in febuary maybe in may at the earlyst.or put it this way as long as the two main partys dont win and an alternative party put in do we stand a chance to get out of this mess that the two main partys have put in.the labour party is running out of ideas and the torys havent got a clue what to do.so theres your answer barryw,a snowballs chance in hell.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
18 December 2008
09:2611104The hard and unpalatable fact Brian is that there is no way to avoid the mess we are in. Right now Labour are pouring petrol on the flames, piling up more and more debt on top of what they amassed before the crisis. This is clearly a pannick response rather than a well thought out cohesive strategy.
You suggest that the Conservatives played a part in creating this mess, that simply is not true. Brown has been in power for nearly 12 years. It was he who changed the regulation of the banks over the the crazy tri-partied system that made the banking crisis so much worse than it need be. It was Brown, who after sticking initially to Ken Clarke's spending plans for the first two years, then went on a spending and borrowing spree at a time when debt should have been repaid. It is the Brown Government that has laid regulation over regulation to hamstring businesess. It is Brown who has increased tax after tax. It is Brown who has discouraged saving and through the previously mentioned ill thought out reforms, kept interest rates lower than they should have been for far too long, creating housing bubble and leaving people with no savings and reliant on credit cards.
Like you I think a later election is more likely, 2010. But there would be good reasons for Brown to go earlier and before the budget when the failure of the PBR will be exposed.
The simple fact is that after the next election you will have either a Conservative or Labour Government, whenever it is.
I think it will be a Conservative one because the economic mess will bite Brown hard. As I said whoever wins the election it will be a poisoned chalice because there will need to be some very diffficult and controversial decisions to be made, there is no easy way out of this.
Sid Pollitt
18 December 2008
12:3711116To get back to the point, the Tory machine is getting ready for an election on a date in Feb 2009 that no-one thinks will happen.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
18 December 2008
13:1311119Brown has the power to call an election when he sees fit. A sensible opposition will be prepared for whatever date he decides on and February 26th is a possible date for which I have provided the for and against reasoning. As I said, I still think June 2010 but who knows....
Guest 645- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 4,463
18 December 2008
14:1811123I think to stop all this speculation and nonense we should have a fixed term of office ,similar to the Americans.
Marek
I think therefore I am (not a Tory supporter)
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
18 December 2008
14:2211124A fair point Marek but would it encourage better Government? I doubt it and such a fixed position would immediately collapse as soon as a Government lost its overall majority mid-term. Fixed term Parliaments work best when you have a seperately elected executive.
I just think that the election speculation and uncertainty adds to the joy of politics!!
Sid Pollitt
18 December 2008
14:5111126There's nothing like a bit of speculation, and this was nothing like it. Just an exercise in spin.
I can imagine hundreds of foot soldiers were peddling this yesterday. Thankfully their efforts will be limited over the next few weeks.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
18 December 2008
16:4811134Change the record Sid... have you nothing new to say.?
What an absurd stance to take. All is not spin, just sit back a while and think through the reasons for this speculation. I have provided the for and against reasons for a Febuary election and said why I think it will be in 2010. You give no basis for what you say merly repeat the same old trash about everything being spin...
Sid Pollitt
18 December 2008
17:2211137Sorry Barry BUT this non-story appeared to be a national spin exercise with people who didnt think the election would be until 2010 saying that it could be on Feb 26th. I doubt very much that I'm the only one that thought it, and I'm sorry if I'm wrong [on this occasion]. If you dont want to be accused of spin then either stop rehashing Tory spin or be a bit more clever about it.
