Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Is tomorrow, Wednesday 22nd April.
There was a time when budgets were kept secret and Chancellors were said to 'go into purdah', in other words isolate themselves, for a few weeks beforehand in case they inadvertantly revealed a budget secret. Doing so would be regarded as a resigination or sacking issue.
This all changed in 1997 with Gordon Brown's first budget. Instead the name of the game was to prepare the ground with carefully revealed bits of information before the budget. These details could be a mix of solid facts about what was to come and carefully prepared mis-information. News management and ensuring the right spin was placed on announcements became much more important the the secrecy of old. Brown usually kept back one surprise for the speech, always something he wanted highlighted in the media, of course.
This year is no different with a mass of careful leaks. Some information, no doubt, being designed to mislead with other details more accurate testing the reaction. This, as always, has been accompanied with much speculation. Darling will also certainly be holding back one surprise though as his predesessor did.
There is no doubt that this will be a hard budget and Darling will be forced to reveal some terrifying borrowing figures. Tax rises and/or budget cuts are also likely, indeed cuts in public spending are unavoidable in the near future whatever Darling announces.
One thing I have learned over the years with NuLab budgets is that what is in the speech tells only a fraction of the story. It is the details of the speech that will feature on tv in the instant reaction and will get the main newspaper headlines the day after.
The speech is designed for that purpose of spin and presentation. This year though even the speech cannot avoid all the bad news. But even so the budget book, containing the detail that was left out of the speech, is what is really important. That tends not to get the spotlight shone on it so much, except in the weightier Sunday papers and, perhaps, the FT.
Within 24 hours of the budget I will receive over a dozen budget commentaries from insurance companies, investment companies, financial analysts and specialist financial publications. These take their information from the budget book and tend to be particularly useful as many of these focus on the real impact on people's lives. This is simply because they are designed for those like me who will be advising people of all ages, whether wealthy or not, on the impact of all this on their finances.
I will provide my initial reaction to what Darling says on this thread, but will then come back a day or so later on with a more thoughtful and detailed commentary on the impact of the measures. This will be after I have absorbed the meaning of it all and that information left out of the speech. I will try to keep the politics to my initial reaction only!!!!
Sid Pollitt
Good post. It reminds me of the guy in the Fast Show who comes out of his shed and says something like 'Today I will be mostly wearing shorts'.
Guest 660- Registered: 14 Mar 2008
- Posts: 3,205
Barry a day or two later,does it take Conservatives at home that long to let you know.
If you knew what I know,we would both be in trouble!
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
JHG - please read what I have said. My initial reaction will be political. My later comments will be regarding the practical impact and implications of the budget based on professional not political information.
You may like to base your posts on Labourhome or Labourlist but on financial matters I have enough professional knowledge and financial sources.
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
Yes go for it BarryW..will certainly be an interesting budget, or perhaps best to put it this way, a budget at an interesting time. I think we all fear the inevitable price rises but hopefully the rises wont be too swingeing and of course hopefully too there will be no cuts in services.
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
brianslist,dont care,not botherd,the same boring increases on wine,beer,sprits and tobacco produts.and then there is the poor moterists,need i say any more.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Brian, while the things you mention are the things about which most people limit their interest, they are actually the things in the budget that are among the least important and have the least significant impact on our lives.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
barryw,these are what the working person looks at first,its the same year in year out the working class get kicked in the testis every year.
Sadly, that is why the working man gets kicked in the wotsits - narrow focus.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
I would not use the outdated expression working class personally, but you are right Bern.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
I have just read this on the Spectator:
""""There is going to be some extremely bad news in the Budget. Public sector borrowing is rocketing out of control, and is now expected to hit around £190 billion in 2010/11, and threatens to bury any recovery and create a double dip recession."""
Remember where you heard about a risk of double dip recession first, from me. I have been warning of this for months and now the press are catching up with me. I did identify a different but associated direct cause, increasing taxes at the wrong time, as a result of needing to deal with this defecit.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
barryw,its not so outdated as you think this working class thing,its coming back into fashion.
Sid Pollitt
I think BarryW is just trying to be politically correct.
Sid Pollitt
I've just watched the Budget speech. You'll be interested to know that the Leader of the Opposition replied, but dont worry this is the tradition - George Osborne hasnt been demoted. I did think that I'd provide my initial reaction to what the Chancellor said on this thread and then come back a day or so later on with a more thoughtful and detailed commentary on the impact of the measures but then I thought you'd think me a tad arrogant and I have seen that the BBC are doing almost as good job as I would have on their website so check that out instead. Today I will be mainly watching the snooker.
It's a pity David Cameron didnt wait to absorb the meaning of it all and he should maybe have tried to keep the politics out of his initial reaction because he made himself look a little desperate.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
You Sid are looking desperate. What a silly critisism of DC, just trying to find something to say no doubt. Just imagine if Cameron had, as you suggested, chickened out of the hardest job of any Opposition Leader. You would have had a field day. Enjoy your snooker.
OK - my initial reaction, the political one.
Darling claimed this as a budget for jobs, no - it was a budget for politics. His forecasts are hopelessly optimistic, more so than expected and more so than independent forecasters. No-one in the City will believe these forecasts and, just think, the Government is going to need these people to invest in his gilt issues in order for him to borrow the extra money he needs. He is gambling on the next election being held before these chickens come home to rooste, no doubt expecting Osborne will have to pick up the pieces.
Then there is his 50p tax band and getting rid of income tax allowances for higher earners. This again is entirely political. He is trying to satifsy his old left wing class war warriors and those addicted to the politics of envy. By bringing these proposals forward to next year he is hoping also to wrongfoot David Cameron.
This tax rise is a political one, even the 45p rate was expected not to raise a penny extra (IFS) and I would expect that this increase will be shown to have a negative effect on revenue raised for the Exchequer. Most of the people who might be hit by this will have the independence and resources to take themselves and their money elsewhere. Others will find legal tax dodges to claw this back. I would prefer 40p of something than 50p of nothing.
Once again we see measures announced in the budget as if they were new that are merely recycled old annoucements. Schemes supposed to have been launched months ago many of which have still not seen the light of day.
This is not the budget we need to lift this country from recession.
I have started to get analysis through already. I have already spotted some interesting twists in the 'Red Book' that Darling did not announce. Once I have studied these, and others, in respect of how they will impact on your lives I will post again in an informative non political manner.
Unlike Pollitt this is what I do for a living, inform people and advise them on the financial impact of measures such as these on their lives. And, yes Sid - I do know a lot more on that than any journalist, BBC or not, as I deal with it every day and not just write about it.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
as i said in this and another post he has hit the working class in the testis,and yes barry this does include you.
Sid Pollitt
I'm not an expert but isnt the plural testes? I think you'll find Brian that pc bods like BarryW describe the working class as leisure time free.
Before the snooker comes on I'm looking at economics etc, just a tip dont search for budgie forecasts. I see that the IMF are forcasting that the economies of Japan at -6% and Germany at -5.6% will shink more than that of the UK, which is contary to what the Tories are saying today.
Oh, and I've revised my position as today I'll be mainly taking abuse from corner shop owners.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
sid,what ever way you spell it the working class still got kicked in them.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Give the whole IMF story Sid.
Darling's forecasts in the budget compared with the IMF forecasts for the UK economy.
2009 growth: Darling negative 3.5% IMF negative 4.1%
2010 growth: Darling positive 1.25% IMF negative 0.4%
These may look small number but they result in huge differences.
What it means for each of us if more debt. The Government will have to borrow even more than their already appalling figures and its our children who will have to repay it. It means more unemployed and a weaker £ (it has fallen in trading since the budget).
Darling then goes on to give growth figures for 2011 onwards at 3.5% per annum. This is completely bonkers and utter fiction. He, Brown and the Treasury have lost their collective minds.
Still studying detail and will put together an impact assessment later.
