Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
There has been no discussion on here about the prospects for a General Election recently yet there has been much press speculation.
Conventional wisdom is that Brown will wait until next year, the most likely date being May 6th 2010, the same day as the local elections. This would be in-line with Labour tactics in the past and would mean Brown would not be going into a General Election on the last possible date just a few weeks after a local election drubbing.
But that does not take into account the damage currently being inflicted on the Government on many fronts. This week they are likely to see the worse Government performance in local/European elections ever. There is speculation that Labour may even come 4th in the European ones, previously unheard of for a Governing or main Opposition Party.
A challenge to Brown is almost certain though no-one can say whether it will be sucessful. I think probably not. The expenses scandal and public pressure may well force Brown (or a successor) to call the General Election sooner. In that case October must be favourite for a couple of reasons:
It is before the evenings get too dark and hamper campaigning. Politicians correctly do not like knocking on doors in the dark and the public dont like it either.
It will also give the Parties enough time over the summer to get their houses in order and get rid of the worse offenders in the expenses scandal in an orderly way. Also the public will not like an election during holiday time of July/August, September for campaigning maybe.
If the election is not in October then the May date becomes almost certain. I also think the liklyhood of Brown not leading Labour into the election increases once an October date is out of the way....Labour unrest over the summer would be brought to heal if an October election was in the offing, that unrest would re-surface with a vengance at the Labour Conference if no election.
Interesting times and it will be fascinating to see how this develops as fall out from this weeks elections.
Sid Pollitt
BarryW are you predicting an election in October? Be clear, you previously said it could be in February 2009 coz you'd had a chain email with a date to push but said you actually thought it would be in 2010. Does it have to be May? If parliament goes it's full term cant it go to July 2010?
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Sid - I do not push out chain mail and neither do I use chain mail as a basis for comment. Why can you not discuss matters in a reasonable way without casting aspertions on people all the time.
I always did think that the election would be as late as possible but previously mentioned for discussion well founded rumours that it might have been February, that did not happen of course. Matters move on and there is a totally different political landscape now.
I personally think the odds are that he will try to hang on until May (June is unlikely for the reasons mentioned) but there is, and will be after these elections, increased pressure for an earlier election for which the most likley date is October.
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
barryw,apethy has set in no one cares anymore.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
I disagree, a lot of people care and that is why the expenses row is so intense, simply because people do care. Polling tells us that there is a huge groundswell of people wanting a clear-out through a Genreal Election. Personally I think the polictical parties need to get their house in order and then we should have an election and October seems a good date for that.
The latest is that Brown is planning a reshuffle for Friday and sees putting Balls in as Chancellor as a way forward. If Balls is the answer then there is something very wrong with the question. Bring him on.....................
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
and ed balls to you to,apathy has set in no ones intrested.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
what an intelligent comment Brian....
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
apathy strikes again.
Guest 686- Registered: 5 May 2009
- Posts: 556
Brian has a point though, I think, over the European and local elections this week. In the scheme of things they do appear to many people to be somewhat irrelevant and get in the way of the more important issue of sorting out Parliament. Even the parties themselves are campaigning on domestic issues rather than European ones it seems to me.
This week's elections simply allow us to vote for "more of the same" in Europe and maybe a change of a few faces in the local councils. If there were a General Election this week instead I suspect the turnout would be much, much higher. I cannot see GB calling an early election because he knows he will lose; and he didn't have a people's mandate to be PM in the first place.
Phil West
If at first you don't succeed, use a BIGGER hammer!!
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
the usual vote turnout at euro elections is approx 38%.
in other words 2 out of 3 people could not care less who gets in.
i think that barry is alone in thinking that apathy is not winning.
a general election will not cure anything, nor will a series of by-elections in the dodgy mp's seats.
the public may start to take an interest in the three main parties again, if the guilty are punished with instant dismissal, no golden goodbye, pension or other freebies.
this is what would happen to the rest of us.
the general election will not be until next spring, no government goes to the polls unless they have a chance of winning.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
The Government may not have much choice though howard. There is a head of steam building up for an early election and if Brown or his successor does not act then it will be all the worse for Labour. There is even media speculation over the possibility of HMQ forcing the election over the head of Brown. This would be constitutionally in order.
Guest 674- Registered: 25 Jun 2008
- Posts: 3,391
Barryw
The labour party like the tory party make it very difficult to have a REAL leadership challenge.
G.B. will still be there, I think with the turn out of D Cameron likely to having to expell Tebitt the tories will turn in on themselves.
Europe will the 1 issue that still divides the tory party.
I think (sadly) that Brian Dixon this time is correct, apathy rules, people are fed up with all the 3 parties.
and indies
and politics
Ross Miller
- Location: London Road, Dover
- Registered: 17 Sep 2008
- Posts: 3,696
Strikes me this is all a bit "mystic meg" - talking about the fall out from an even tthat has not yet happened.
"Dream as if you'll live forever. Live as if you'll die today." - James Dean
"Being deeply loved by someone gives you strength,
While loving someone deeply gives you courage" - Laozi
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Ross - far from mystic Meg, we can see just today that the Government is already falling apart. Resignations here and there, with more to follow, without Brown being informed and this must be disrupting his reshuffle, planned to be announced between the local elections and European results. Clearly an attempt to take the headlines away from electoral disaster for Labour. Darling being spoken about as Chancellor in the past tense and amazingly Balls being lined up for Chancellor, now that really is desperation.
Labour morale really is at rock bottom and anything can happen. I wonder whether any of these departing Ministers will do a Geofffrey Howe to Brown, they have good reason? Anything can happen in the current turgid atmoshere in Westminster.
This is no way for a Government to behave in the middle of the most serious financial crisis we have ever had and at a time we are at war. This is the Government of the living dead. Speaking of which, did you see Brown's zombie like performance on tv? Ignoring the questions as always and repeating his usual favourite lines regardless.
The way its going right now Brown may not even last out June with a quick interim PM getting selected followed by a quick general election. We certainly need one, it is not doing the country any good at all. The problem if the election is called in July the parties may not have had the chance to clear out their scroungers and re-select decent candidates and that would be a pity.
Sid Pollitt
Iain Dale said much the same bring about Ed Balls nudge wink earlier on the tv box [without being specific of course], at least the beeb called him a conservative blogger this time rather than let viewers think he's a credible commentator.
I have heard that the Tories are not only using Mystic Meg for predictions but are also getting their economic forecasts from a guy that does a good impression of Peter Sellers' character in the film Being There.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
No thats Darling with his fantasy budget forecasts that no-one believes, not one single forecaster agrees with his trampoline growth figures. Another example where this Government has zero credability.
As for Iain Dale, are you suggesting that because someone is a Conservative blogger they are not credible commentators. Of course you are you are blind enough to think only Labour supporters are credible commentators. Balls appalling record speaks for itself.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
there you go again barryw,apathy stikes again.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
there is no chance whatsoever of a quick general election.
that would wind up the public even more.
we all need to know who the good people and the bad people are, this issue is nowhere near finishing.
watch the results this weekend, they will be the most confusing ones ever.
it would be wrong to go to the country before everyone is clear in their mind that the crooks have been outed and a new start from the major parties has been initiated.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
I am inclined to agree howard that we need a good clear out before an election but it could gain momentum.
The country is rudderless with a discredited PM who lacks authority even in his own Cabinet and is despised by the larger proportion of the public. It really is not good for things to carry on the way they are and the boil needs lancing.
I understand that the Conservative review is nearly over so maybe we will see the final 'bad boys' dealt with very soon opening up for a quick selection of new candidates. Not sure how the other parties stand though, they seem to be taking a lot more time to deal with things, but we have had some Labour culprits dealt with today, they do have a lot more MPs to get through of course.
I still think on balance October is the earliest date but July even is not impossible with what is going on at the moment.
Sid Pollitt
Calm down dear it's only an election. What I dont like is when they say someone is a commentator or a 'blogger' and dont give a health warning. I dont get this pre-smear scare stuff on Ed Balls but I suppose we'll see it played out on blogs and in letters to the newspapers [with similar wording no doubt] across the country. Isnt Cammeron a bad boy, or is he just a naughty boy? Where's that Tory shadow chancellor gone, is he going to star in his own where's wally books?