Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
Yes Mark they select a group of broadly based people , usually 1000, and in some cases 1200 as Sid says there, depending on the poll organisation and there is a whole brace of these organisations now. But although the figures sound relatively small they are usually fairly accurate in predicting the outcome of things like the Exit Polls and so on.
This week however has seen some wild fluctuations particularly with the Libdems reading anything from 23% to 33% depending on the poll. However roughly across the polls you can see a relatively settled picture and it has been that way for 10 days or so....Cons 34 Libs 32 Lab 28. It hasnt really shifted away from this basic pattern.
The big shift seen in recent polls was of course the impact Nick Clegg made following the first debate. All previous polls are off the menu!
Something either catastrophic or mesmeric will be needed to shift this general position which seems to have settled itself where it is right now.
Guest 645- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 4,463
Sid
Nice one
Proud to be British born and proud of my heritage...Oh gawd..that will start Alex D off on another of his anti East European ramblings..
Marek
I think therefore I am (not a Tory supporter)
Unregistered User
This election has been dominated by the TV debates, wrongly in my opinion, so the only real chance of altering the opinion polls from the level they are at is a outstanding debate on Thursday or a really bad one. It is Mr Brown's territory on Thursday and his only chance to get out of the mire he and his party are in, if he achieves it then Lazurus will take a back seat for ever after.
Thanks Howard and Sid i to find it amazing they get these results from such a small number of people .
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
mark
i think it is just experience gained over decades makes them so accurate today.
they must work out a good cross section of society to get the results.
incidentally tomorrows icm poll in the guardian still points to a hung parliament.
blues 33%
yellows 30%
reds 28%
Q: What have Arsenal Football Club and th eLabour Party got in common?
A: They both seem destined to come third.