ray hutstone- Registered: 1 Apr 2018
- Posts: 2,158
#219 Behind a paywall.
Reginald Barrington
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 17 Dec 2014
- Posts: 3,233
#219
Sunetra Gupta:
The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.
If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.
“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.
The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.
The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta.
However, she was reluctant to criticise the government for shutting down the country to suppress viral spread, because the accuracy of the Oxford model has not yet been confirmed and, even if it is correct, social distancing will reduce the number of people becoming seriously ill and relieve severe pressure on the NHS during the peak of the epidemic.
The Oxford study is based on a what is known as a “susceptibility-infected-recovered model” of Covid-19, built up from case and death reports from the UK and Italy. The researchers made what they regard as the most plausible assumptions about the behaviour of the virus.
The modelling brings back into focus “herd immunity”, the idea that the virus will stop spreading when enough people have become resistant to it because they have already been infected. The government abandoned its unofficial herd immunity strategy — allowing controlled spread of infection — after its scientific advisers said this would swamp the National Health Service with critically ill patients.
This pandemic is an ethical challenge
But the Oxford results would mean the country had already acquired substantial herd immunity through the unrecognised spread of Covid-19 over more than two months. If the findings are confirmed by testing, then the current restrictions could be removed much sooner than ministers have indicated.
Although some experts have shed doubt on the strength and length of the human immune response to the virus, Prof Gupta said the emerging evidence made her confident that humanity would build up herd immunity against Covid-19.
To provide the necessary evidence, the Oxford group is working with colleagues at the Universities of Cambridge and Kent to start antibody testing on the general population as soon as possible, using specialised “neutralisation assays which provide reliable readout of protective immunity,” Prof Gupta said. They hope to start testing later this week and obtain preliminary results within a few days
Arte et Marte
Reginald Barrington- Location: Dover
- Registered: 17 Dec 2014
- Posts: 3,233
Weird Granny Slater wrote:
It's quite simple really.
I don't care about illegal migrants going hungry (they only have to present themselves to authorities to prevent it) but I don't wish death upon them.
Button and Jan Higgins like this
Arte et Marte
Jan Higgins
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 5 Jul 2010
- Posts: 13,807
The only worry I have about illegal immigrants is should they contact the disease they will not seek immediate treatment so will spread the virus to others.
WGS Very little difference but luckily we all know the Captain has a weird outlook on life at times, at least I think he does.
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I try to be neutral and polite but it is hard and getting even more difficult at times.
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Sue Nicholas- Location: river
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 6,019
Bob makes me laugh.A very clever man.
Weird Granny Slater
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 7 Jun 2017
- Posts: 3,003
Oh, thanks everyone for clearing that up. If I'd known it was only a bit of malnutrition-friendly quipping I wouldn't have bothered.
ray hutstone likes this
'Pass the cow dung, my dropsy's killing me' - Heraclitus
Weird Granny Slater- Location: Dover
- Registered: 7 Jun 2017
- Posts: 3,003
Re the FT Oxford University piece. It's been obvious for a while that the mortality rate's been wildly over-exaggerated. But any scientist suggesting this has been routinely slapped down as, at best, underplaying COVID-19 or, at worst, denying it. Still, once the danger's passed, we can really start to enjoy our new 'emergency' legislation.
'Pass the cow dung, my dropsy's killing me' - Heraclitus
Ross Miller
- Location: London Road, Dover
- Registered: 17 Sep 2008
- Posts: 3,696
RB re the piece you posted it ok for her to ask for widespread antibody testing but she failed to mention that there currently isnt a practicle test available though amusingly her own university is working on developing one...
WGS I too share your worry about unwinding much of this emergency legislation once we come out the end of this or will it too end up like the temporary restrictions on public houses imposed in WW1, or the temporary imposition of income tax in 1798 to pay for weapons and equipment in preparation for the Napoleonic Wars
"Dream as if you'll live forever. Live as if you'll die today." - James Dean
"Being deeply loved by someone gives you strength,
While loving someone deeply gives you courage" - Laozi
Reginald Barrington- Location: Dover
- Registered: 17 Dec 2014
- Posts: 3,233
Ross they have the test kits the 3 universities are currently "testing the tests"
I think that is what her last paragraph would have said before editorial licence needed to lose 50 words.
Arte et Marte
Captain Haddock
- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 7,944
Prince Charles is self isolating with Covid-19
Prince Andrew is self isolating with Sophie-15
Bob Whysman likes this
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 7,944
#221
Yup. Chickens coming home to roost.
A bit like the 'self employed' who would work cheaper 'for cash' (i.e. not paying tax - and we all know them) who now want bailing out?
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 7,944
Now that the police have the power to break up groups, can we please start with U2???
Asking for a friend.
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
Weird Granny Slater- Location: Dover
- Registered: 7 Jun 2017
- Posts: 3,003
This Public Health England announcement backs up the thrust of the Oxford study. COVID-19 was actually removed from the list of high consequence infectious diseases on 19 March. One of the reasons given is that the mortality rate is now regarded as 'low overall':
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid
Had there been calm heads on this from the go, rather than a hysterical, sensationalist, profit-driven media, novices in government, and scientific modelling based on inadequate data, we might have had a more rational, proportionate response. It also begs the question as to why, given the 19 March downgrading, the Tories still felt it necessary to introduce 'emergency' legislation on 23 March. (And the fact the legislation is 329 pages long makes you wonder what they've actually been giving priority to since December.)
'Pass the cow dung, my dropsy's killing me' - Heraclitus
ray hutstone- Registered: 1 Apr 2018
- Posts: 2,158
The extent of the cock-up is being revealed day by day. Mercifully we don't have a leader as idiotic as Trump but there's a long way to go yet.
Karlos- Location: Dover
- Registered: 1 Oct 2012
- Posts: 2,487
Jan Higgins- Location: Dover
- Registered: 5 Jul 2010
- Posts: 13,807
I have seen the suggestion that those having trouble parking in their road because there is no space should take advantage of these free car parks.
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I try to be neutral and polite but it is hard and getting even more difficult at times.
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Andy B
- Location: dover
- Registered: 10 Nov 2012
- Posts: 1,742
How very generous of them,perhaps they could really help us out by suspending council tax whilst many of us wonder when our next pay packet will come.
Judith Roberts- Registered: 15 May 2012
- Posts: 637
I thought it was so we didn't have to touch the key pads and risk infecting each other.
Jan Higgins- Location: Dover
- Registered: 5 Jul 2010
- Posts: 13,807
I wonder how busy the car parks are this morning? I have seen more cars go past my house than I have seen for the entire week, nice in a way to see a bit of life but also a worry that far to many people are out and about.
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I try to be neutral and polite but it is hard and getting even more difficult at times.
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Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 7,944
#238
Andy. Local Government needs cash flow to operate. Most of us can still afford to pay our various taxes.
IF individuals are having problem paying suggest they get in touch with DDC?
Bob Whysman likes this
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
