howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Looks a very confused picture to me firstly we have the Prime Minister wondering which way to go after triggering Article 50 with some of her colleagues wanting hard brexit and others soft brexit, what that means in practice I don't really know.
It's make or break year for Corbyn as even his closest allies have warned and it is difficult to see how he can win back former Labour voters in the heartlands whilst he continues to back unrestricted immigration.
That leaves the door open for UKIP if Nuttall can hold his party together and stop the in fighting which is more about personalities than policies. His stated aim is to appeal to the "patriotic working class" who feel left behind by the main parties.
I have a feeling the SNP will eventually self destruct if they continue the ridiculous attempt to stay within the EU whilst still part of the UK. I doubt that most Scots would fancy another Referendum after the last time when friends and families were split over the issue and many have not got back together. The oil revenues are badly down and the experts say there is a lot less oil left than the SNP have been saying.
Guest 1881- Registered: 16 Oct 2016
- Posts: 1,071
That's an interesting and well argued summary of the troubles ahead for the main political parties, Mr McSweeney1.
If I was a gambling man, which, I wager, I am not, I would put money on Mrs Sturgeon remaining at the helm of her party ahead of the other three parties mentioned. She is pretty secure, in my view.
Once Brexit actually happens, in 2 years and 3 months maximum, what wold be the point of UKIP? Mr Farage went knowing that a re-badging would not really cut the mustard.
Mrs May is skating on the thinnest melting ice of any mid-term PM since, errrr, Gordon Brown. Mr Corbyn needs to get his message over in an evangelical manner across all forms of the media, but most importantly, he needs to be seen knocking spots off of erroneous austerity arguments on prime-time spots like Question Time etc. Labour's problem really is two-fold. Scotland is gone and won't be returning to Labour for the next General Election and the forthcoming, likely constituency boundary changes will make swing comparisons very difficult to gauge.
In the meantime, we all have a tantalising Copeland election to look forward too. Will Labour have the guts to put up a pro-Corbyn candidate? If they do, we'll see if they have legs. If not... wilderness and another leadership challenge ...and another ...and another?
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Just because you don't take an interest in politics doesn't mean that politics won't take an interest in you. PERICLES.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
I must take issue on a couple of points your grace, put me down for a few Hail Marys if you must but how can you expect Mr Corbyn to come across as Evangelical when he comes across as a timid Anglican vicar announcing the date of the next church bazaar or coffee morning in aid of poor Africans? Tony Blair was "da man" for that in the mid 90s dropping his notes coming down from the pulpit and speaking directly to us, via the camera of course - no-one else has come close since. If only he was still our lord and master.
The Tories can only be shifted by Labour sending in someone that can relate to disenfranchised chaps and chapesses that have moved to UKIP and gain wavering centrist voters. That man of course is Dan Jarvis but his personal life stopped him standing the last couple of times, maybe he is more settled now or in a years time? If the next General Election is in 2020 and Jarvis became leader at the end of this year I would bet my pension on a Labour landslide, there's not much to beat after all.
Keith Sansum1
- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,920
To be fair Howard/Bishop you are saying what I have been saying for sometime.
T May doesn't really have the support of those on the right of her party, and shes swaying but in time she will go.
UKIP once the brexit is finally sorted will become a non event, but could lasting damage in local elections, although we don't see them being that well organised in those areas.
As Howard says only labour can replace the tories, but first they have to reconnect to the country(not just its own supporters) and corbyn needs to come across as a leader.
The parties play down immigration at there peril.
we are the only losers whilst the pantomime goes on,,,,,,,,,
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Button
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 22 Jul 2016
- Posts: 3,053
I was rather hoping for a breakthrough from the 'I haven't a clue' party.
Their statement in post 1 'some of her colleagues wanting hard brexit and others soft brexit, what that means in practice I don't really know' is indicative of a commendable honesty that the MPs in question would do well to fess up to themselves.
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(Not my real name.)
Guest 1881- Registered: 16 Oct 2016
- Posts: 1,071
Mr McSweeney1, can you highlight the political pedigree of Mr Jarvis? He is often touted because of his military background but I know very little of him in the political arena - if Mr Corbyn is to be upended, would Clive Lewis have more credibility (he owns a military background, is in the shadow cabinet and is a strong, widely-respected voice)?
On the subject of timid Anglican vicars...beware the mouse that roars, Mr McSweeney1! Any more flippancy from you and I cannot guarantee that your teeth will not be gnashed - and, if you don't own your own any longer, as the Rev Iain Paisley once remarked to a Sunday sermon heckler that had dentures, "teeth will be provided". In the meantime, half a Hail Mary will suffice.
Just because you don't take an interest in politics doesn't mean that politics won't take an interest in you. PERICLES.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Political pedigree, knowledge and experience count for little when trying to become Prime Minister. The qualities needed to win General Elections are a good suit and haircut and capped teeth and good presentation skills, just ask Messrs Blair and Cameron. When interviewed lean forward and look earnestly at the camera and pretend to be concerned about the plight of "ordinary" people.
Hope that clarifies matters.
Guest 1881- Registered: 16 Oct 2016
- Posts: 1,071
howard mcsweeney1 wrote:Political pedigree, knowledge and experience count for little when trying to become Prime Minister. The qualities needed to win General Elections are a good suit and haircut and capped teeth and good presentation skills, just ask Messrs Blair and Cameron. When interviewed lean forward and look earnestly at the camera and pretend to be concerned about the plight of "ordinary" people.
Hope that clarifies matters.
That didn't convince me until I visualised you saying it in a sharp suit, leaning forward...now I'm converted.
Just because you don't take an interest in politics doesn't mean that politics won't take an interest in you. PERICLES.
Guest 1881- Registered: 16 Oct 2016
- Posts: 1,071
Then I reimagined it with you in £100 brown leather trousers...we are back at square one.
Just because you don't take an interest in politics doesn't mean that politics won't take an interest in you. PERICLES.
Guest 1849- Registered: 12 Sep 2016
- Posts: 440
2017 and beyond will be interminably dull for politics, we are approaching a 1 party state.
The Labour Party I grew up with is finished, its now centred around middle class intelligentsia and minorities in London and other big cities, nowhere near enough to regain power. Besides which they have nobody remotely capable of being PM.
UKIP are skint and now have nobody with Nigel's charisma and pulling power, after the referendum their race is run.
The Libs will pick up a few targeted seats at the next GE, something they've always been good at.
All over Kent voting will be futile, any monkey could stand in a blue rosette and get in, to go with the ones we already have.
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Captain Haddock
- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 8,072
howard mcsweeney1 wrote: If the next General Election is in 2020 and Jarvis became leader at the end of this year I would bet my pension on a Labour landslide, there's not much to beat after all.
The truly 'dark' horse is Clive Lewis. Seriously. You watch.
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"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
The Bishop wrote:Then I reimagined it with you in £100 brown leather trousers...we are back at square one.
That May be or maybe not the case.
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Guest 745- Registered: 27 Mar 2012
- Posts: 3,370
Labour will see compulsory reselection ousting the Blair politicians ,this will be the true J C legacy power to the membership from the bottom up . The labour party loaded with the extreme left-wing will tip the party to the left .
But the labour party’s policy’s of mass immigration and love for all things EU and minority’s will not give it traction with the angry British working class.
I don’t see Clive Lewis as an effective replacement for J C, he’s still a keep the doors open politician and full of silly statement like give them a union card that should fix the problem . makes you wonder what he learned about strategy at Sandhurst ?
The Tory’s are at the political cross roads ,deliver on EU out mass migration and keeping the voters happy or keep serving the city of London.
The rich will injects cash into ukip or similar party’s ensuring the working class don’t give the vote to the extreme left labour party .The ukip rigged N E C will ensure there will always be lots of ex-conservative party rejects to stand as candidates
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Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 8,072
Labour are screwed! Even the 18-24 yr olds prefer May to Corbyn now.
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
Keith Sansum1- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,920
My worry is I agree with much of post 10 lol
Having grown up with Labour up until 9 years ago where I decided to get out of it all, up until then I tried to fight from within it wasn't working and going from bad to worse.
Even its own think tank(Fabian society) is saying labour wont win next general election.
Without doubt The SNP will continue to hold much of Scotland
And the lib Dems and UKIP will win the odd seat
it's in no ones interest to have a one party state
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Neil Moors- Registered: 3 Feb 2016
- Posts: 1,299
The de facto opposition to Government policy now is the value of sterling. Simple as that. The level of Brexit stupidity will be measured by the level the pound falls - strange times.
Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 8,072
Neil Moors wrote:The de facto opposition to Government policy now is the value of sterling. Simple as that. The level of Brexit stupidity will be measured by the level the pound falls - strange times.
And yet the fall in the value of the pound will be sold as a necessary readjustment and good for exports!
As the great Harvey Willsud said 'This will not affect the pound in your pocket' so that's all right then!
And for the youngsters who can't remember 'what happens next' here's a spoiler warning.
Foreign Exchange Control.
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
Guest 1849- Registered: 12 Sep 2016
- Posts: 440
He said that just before he stopped free milk for school children
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
nah david that was thatcher the milk snatcher...............lol
Keith Sansum1- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,920
Brian
please don't let facts get in the way
far easier to blame lol
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
