Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Visit my blog to see the competition I have arranged for fun. This will remain 'up' on my blog until Brown visits HMQ to ask for the dissolution of Parliament.
It is about your predictions of the General Election result with two ways to win.
Open to members and non-members
You will need to email me your guesses and not post them here.
I will feed back (no names) the entries on this thread.
Do participate, its just a bit of fun.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
First entry:
Conservatives 249 (gain 54)
Labour 250 (loss 94)
LibDem 72 (gain 9)
Other 75 (gain 34)
mmmmmmmmmmmmm
No percentage vote guess yet from that entrant, I hope to get one so he does not waste a second chance.
Incidentally - I have a copy of the Andy Cooke swing calculator and I will provide seat estimates for any voting percentages entered in the competition.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Ok, time for my prediction:
Conservatives 350 - 40%
Labour 225 - 32%
LibDems 42 - 18%
Other 33 - 10%
I believe that LibDems and Others will be squeezed.
I, of course will be having lunch in Blakes regardless and do not qualify to win my own prize!!!
Blast - I was aiming to be the first entrant!! Entry has just pinged into your inbox BarryW!!
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Sure you dont want to revise your entry bern? Monster Raving Loonies, Screaming Lord Sutch is dead so cant be PM...
Even then he couldn't be any worse than the bunch already in the job, and those waiting to step into their shoes..............
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Another entry:
Conservative - 289
Labour - 268
LibDem - 61
Other - 32
No percentages again, come on - guess!!!
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
two more entries:
Con - 302 (37%)
Lab - 263 (29%)
LibDems - 52 (19%)
Others - 33 (14%)
Running the above percentages through the seat calculator we get a much better picture for the Conservatives.
Con - 340
Lab - 220
LibDems - 54
Others - 36
OTHER ENTRY----
Con - 320 (37%)
Lab - 225 (33%)
LibDem - 60 (19%)
Other - 45 (11%)
Seat calculator based on those percentages:
Con - 318
Lab - 248
LibDem - 52
Other - 32
This seat calculator is different to the older Uniform National Swing calculators that are normally used because it allows for what they call 'tactical unwind' and differential swings in the marginals.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
just latching on to the last bit of your post barry.
the marginals at present are showing a 5% swing to the blues, when a 9% swing is required for an overall majority.
i realise that different seats will show individual results dependent on local issues and quality of candidates but i bet that HQ is getting concerned.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
That is not true Howard, you are mixing swing and lead. Even on a Uniform National swing 'only' a 5.5% swing is need.
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
to be honest barryw i dont think i could face lunch,not evan at the world famous blakes if the torys got in.probaly be at the bar drowning my sorrows,thenwould cosider moving to another country.
The last thing I need right now is a "differential swing" in my marginals thank you!
Sue Nicholas- Location: river
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 6,023
I dont want to get political ,however I can see why people vote Labour .If you have a lovely Social housing set in the country side with large gardens ,money poured into villages for community halls etc why would you change .Out of work or a younger person ,never worked except to bring a few children into the world with absent fathers .You must be on a winner .
Now look at the other way of voting .Conservative .Go to school work hard hopefully aquire a degree and in some cases two ,buy your own home ,;work for those extras ,Labour government for thirteen years and you are taxed to the hilt for getting on in life
In the latter case those who chose the Conservative route hope that one day this will change and work and effort willl be rewarded .
The former route is the lazy ,and envy culture .
Give me give me .Living off the state and daring to call those who support Conservatives Toffs .
Some people donot have children work hard and see their money taken away in taxes to support those girls who take the easy route to aquire a house and benefits .
Rant over .
Having a bad hair day Sue?
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
yes sid,its all to do with this spring sunshine,sue went around hatless and got sun stroke.
Sid - that differential swing in your marginals could lead to a hung parliament, so take care.
Sue - if it was as simple as that voting would be a breeze, and budget-setting would take little or no thought; policy-researchers and setters would be redundant and we would simply hang all scroungers (once we had defined the concept of scrounger of course. I suggest it would include MPs who claim for fictitious houses and moats.) Social and personal circumstances are complex, and to sweep everone with similar external qualities together is fatuous in the extreme. I respect your view, Sue, but am disappointed in its lack of insight.
Sue Nicholas- Location: river
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 6,023
Thanks Bern ,I do respect that everyone is entitled to their view point .My parents never had the money to own their home and when in their seventies the council gave them a flat my parents were over the moon .My daughter was the first in our family to gain a degree followed by her two brothers .My Mother did not believe in education ,brought up to work as soon as you reached the age to leave school .In my case fifteen .
I see the older generation who have worked hard all their lives only to see the younger generation expecting handouts .I have seen people with disabled stickers on their cars leaping out of their cars .Yes at Council meetings
Ihave sat through meetings and heard the moans etc .
I agree the rot has set in at Westminster and all those MPS whatever party should be held to account .
No Sid not a bad hair day .Im just going out to paint my fence which I had to pay for No council to pay for that ,.Just as well my family help their old Mother out .I would not be able to buy my hats otherwise .
Bern as an aside .My daughter NHS employed was telling me about some of the hardship cases she sees in the Midlands .her eyes filled with tears as she described some of the appaling conditions children live in
Fifteen years of Labour and still it goes on .We have brought up not just one but two generations who lack respect and have no sense of worth . .
Guest 671- Registered: 4 May 2008
- Posts: 2,095
Sue,
I chose the work route in life but the tories took it from me and 1000'''s of others.
"My New Year's Resolution, is to try and emulate Marek's level of chilled out, thoughtfulness and humour towards other forumites and not lose my decorum"
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
thank you gary, susan's rant does a disservice for those who cannot work or have had their work taken away from them.
besides the blues started this culture of staying at home all day in the eighties, things have just carried on from there.
another issue is that many benefit claimants do not vote anyway, so no gain for the reds there.
Poverty is no longer a red or blue issue - the parties have swerved closer to each other, too close to claim much moral high ground about anything at all. |And it should be remembered that the basis for the welfare state has always been equality of opportunity and care and support for the vulnerable. Both Tories and Labour have mismanaged us to the point where the organisations managing the benefits are too risk averse to manage them properly, and the system too complex to drill down.
