Guest 649- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 14,118
Marek,Not Status Quo,any other name please but not that one.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Another entry:
Cons - 37%
Lab - 33%
LibDem - 18%
Other - 12%
No seat totals.
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I have run the percentages throught he seat calculator and that produces:
Con - 320
Lab - 249
LibDem - 48
Other - 33
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Looking at the entries so far I can help but think too many people are playing safe and guessing on the present polling evidence. I think that might be a mistake as there is over a month, maybe two months, to go yet.
Guest 671- Registered: 4 May 2008
- Posts: 2,095
Ooooh dear Sid, you do seem to have a fixation on our Arthur, don't you?
Stop hiding behind Maggie's skirt, spouting her propaganda. You used the Miner's to bring down the unions and succeeded. If you think it was right to do that, then be a man, standby what she did and acknowledge it. You won, gloat if you must, but stick to the facts.
Sue.
I think Blair's and Browns government's have not done enough in helping our town's and villages, recover from losing our entire coalfield. However, in my opinion, they are on the right road and at least they do care.
The social consequences of bringing the unions to heel are plain for everyone to see.
It's not claiming benefits that have been the problem, its Having to claim benefits.
Under the last Tory government proud men and their families were forced onto benefits and we are now reaping the consequences of that action.
I have many friends and relatives who are Tories, including our fuehrer, and I respect them all.
I believe we should all work together to put this country back on track for everyone, not the individual, wherein lies the difference between us.
"My New Year's Resolution, is to try and emulate Marek's level of chilled out, thoughtfulness and humour towards other forumites and not lose my decorum"
Howard, #28, hence my post #30.
As much as I like our Sue, that posting demonstrates views that are out of touch with reality and actually represent 30 year old political thinking. Maybe Sue should stand in a local seat other than posh River and get to see the other side of the tracks.
However, after suffering 13 years of imported labour and much reduced opportunity and jobs being taken away from Brits, most of those on benefits are crying out for action which will see them put first for once. For those folks the motto is simple, "Failed by Labour, failed by Britain'".
The ONLY hope for them is another 'Blue revolution'. Question is, have the Blues got the stomach for the fight?
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
just received seat predictions to go with the last entry:
Con - 325
Lab - 250
LibDem - 45
Other - 30
An interesting point here if this seat distribution was to happen. The Speaker would have a central role except.... if as now Sinn Fein (5 existing members) were not to take up their seats giving DC an effective majority. He would likely get support of Unionists as well. So it would be the Northern Irish who would be pivotal and not the LibDems.
Sue Nicholas- Location: river
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 6,023
Hullo Sid ,
Far from being out of date Im very much on the ball .My family keep me very well informed and Im in touch with people from all walks of life .River is not the posh area it once was ,however I do see older people who live on state pensions and every time that they need repairs to their homes having to dip into their savings .I was a governor ar St Radigunds School for over twelve years ,Chairman for four .Im currently Chairman of Age Concern so I comwe into contact with people from all over the District .Six years as Portfolio Holder for housing saw i came across people from deprived wards .
My arguement is why should people who have got on in life pay for those who claim benefits as their right from the state .
I have just been sorting out my tax code .Im taxed on my pensions and income from DDC .
Guest 649- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 14,118
Barry the seat predictions on the above posts are done by you or you headoffice and mean nothing at all mate.
Guest 693- Registered: 12 Nov 2009
- Posts: 1,266
No Vic, no! They do mean something if you think about it. The mathematics mean an equal number of MPS in the Government and outside the Government, so that means the Speaker would have the casting vote in the event of the division bell sounding and everyone siding for or against the Government according to their party whip.
Now, the current speaker is one John Bercow - and you know who he's standing against in his constituency, don't you?
True friends stab you in the front.
Sue Nicholas- Location: river
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 6,023
Ops I pressed send before I had corrected the posting .To continue .I will always defend the older generation who have worked hard all their lives and young people who try to achieve and get on i n life .
Im sick of some of the people I come across day after day with no respect and believe the Nanny state shpuld keep them .
Sid ,dont preach to me .I managed to brinup my children two in their teens when Father died and one of Two .They have all made a success of their lives .I have a modest house not a mansion .
I chose to stay at home most of their childhood so no expensive holidays
The rented TV went back when we could no longer afford the payments .Clothes were made and meals put on the table .
Im not a rich Tory but I do believe in hard work and respect
may be I do have old ideals nothing wrong with that .
Marek you only have to listen and watch to see that most of the younger people I refer to either donot vote or vote Labour .
I read some of these postings and I wonder if some of you live in the real world .
Sid I may represent a leafy area but I guard it well .This ward has a large popuation of elderly people .
We donot have smart new Community Halls The Parish Council look after the Recreation Ground which River people pay for out of the local precept .
We have a good school with smart new facilities fought hard for
I would do anything for some one in need ,in fact when I die im leaving a small amount of money to St Radigunds School
Iloved my time there and I made many friends
Did you not read my posting re my Daughter and stories of deprivation in the Midlands .
Both my sons travel the world for work they tell me how other countries are run .
I dont just sit in leafy River .Not thirty years out of date .Im surrounded by young people who hate being taxed to the hilt payi ng for those who have little respect for themselves let alone their country .
No I do not agree with David Cameron dressing down ..
.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
I don't have an 'headoffice' Vic. I did say in my Blog that I would use the Andy Cooke Seat Calculator to project the percentages that people guess.
All opinion polls try to convert their percentages to seats and most of these are done on the basis of Uniform National Swing. The Andy Cooke model has been developed using date from marginals to assess the impact of differential voting patterns. It is much more sophisticated than the UNS models. Andy is not allied to any particular Party and produced his calculator for the political betting website making it avaialble to download. This is a 'one election' only calculator incidentally specially done for this election. While I do not expect it to be perfect it is a better basis for calculation than UNS.
Gary, no fixation mate, just tired of the constant bleating about how a Government that stood up to the Unions is blamed for the Union's activity. Ergo, no miners strike = strong possibilty of their still being a mining industry in the UK.
I'm not hiding behind Maggie or anyone else for that matter. I didn't use anyone to bring down the unions either, I wasn't involved. What she did, needed doing as the country was in a worse mess than it is today, if indeed that is possible.
However, there were millions like me who thought the elected Government should govern, not bow and scrape to the unelected, whether they be big business or union bosses.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
that is how most people vote.
except for when mr heath asked the question about who should govern, him or the miners.
the rest is history.
andy
i have a sneaking feeling it is vic's new mate nigel.
am i correct?
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
ok barryw here is my forcast for the eltion.
labour,350.
lib/dem,225.
conservative 25
ukip,30
others,10.
Blimey, so many conversations going on! Politics still gets us all going!
Guest 671- Registered: 4 May 2008
- Posts: 2,095
Sid,
I too was one of those millions and I still am, I neither wanted to bring down a government nor did I want to strike and i did not want to be an enemy to this country. I just wanted to be employed with a safe future for my families.
"My New Year's Resolution, is to try and emulate Marek's level of chilled out, thoughtfulness and humour towards other forumites and not lose my decorum"
Guest 649- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 14,118
Well said Gary.
Guest 660- Registered: 14 Mar 2008
- Posts: 3,205
My dad left home when I was 11 my Mum brought us up in a Council House in a small village my brothers were 9 and 7,it was a scandal in the village when my Dad left,people that were friends didn't seem to want to speak to us.
I wasn't very bright but I could work,on a farm at 12,paper round,even singing in the choir for a shilling,why because I had too.My Mum hadn't done nothing wrong but we struggled she cleaned houses worked on the land and we got very little from the state.
When I left School I worked out on the fields,doing Brussels Sprouts all winter,spud picking even on Whitfield Hill,when I joined the railway I had to work for a month without any pay,the Social Security asked what my expenses were and they were £10,they gave me £5 and told me I may have to pay it back.
I have worked for the railway for 37 years,the last time I had a day off was the day I found out that my ex wife was playing away12 years ago but I was back at work the following day.I brought my Daughter up on my own for 3 years while doing shift work including nights.I have always worked because I can.......but there are some who can't because of physical or mental illnesses or many other reasons,I consider myself lucky,because I could have been someone who could never work.
If I had a disability it doesn't always show,and it would be my disability provided I qualified for a Blue Badge that is my business as is my disability it may be a non physical disability which means Sue I can jump out of my car.
When I look back and look at my daughter and my parents and see what they get,Bus Passes,Heating Allowance,Free Swimming,a decent pension for my parents and for my Daughter,who lost her job when she became pregnant,Decent family allowance family credit,unemployment benefit,Housing Allowance....God I am glad that we have a Labour Goverment because watch these disappear if the Tories get in.
Do I begrudge these people there benefits.....no of course not,my parents worked all thier lives,I have paid my part without ever being unemployed my Daughter( eldest )has you might argue has not had the luck I had,or as she is about to produce my first Grandchild perhaps she had,yes without doubt she has benefitted from a Labour Goverment is that wrong.
When I was the Governor of a Primary School 2 of the 3 Parent Governors were single men,and a well know Tory(not Nigel) County Councillor once said in the deprived Primary School 'You can blame the kids most of them are brought up by single parents....some by just there Dads,the other Governor was so angry we almost had to peel the Tory off the wall.That is many Tories attitude,I have done well on my own so you should.......We are not all as lucky.. Yes I am proud to be a Socialist
If you knew what I know,we would both be in trouble!
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
REMINDER
Please email me your vote predictions. Only those emailed will count, see the blog, I will not trawl through posts to find entries but will be printing emails into a folder.
Dont forget also that you have two chances: Number of Seats and Percentages. Two winners.
Good luck
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
maybe you should enlarge this poll barry.
members can vote who was the poorest when they were a kid.
susan appears to be leading, but john is coming up on the standside.
Alec Sheldon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 18 Aug 2008
- Posts: 1,036
I haven't mentioned our shoe box in't middle of road yet.