Weird Granny Slater
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 7 Jun 2017
- Posts: 3,008
That first 'r' in 'the draft agreement' is rapidly shrinking as the letters surrounding it grow ever bigger.
'Pass the cow dung, my dropsy's killing me' - Heraclitus
Button
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 22 Jul 2016
- Posts: 3,033
Either Jan is not about to get her Christmas wish, or else this depicts the old saying: if you have nothing nice to say, don't say anything at all.
(Not my real name.)
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
After reading, listening and then digesting all the views from both sides of the argument I have reached the conclusion that we have a better deal now paying in vast sums to the EU than we will have if the latest draft comes into being. There is no chance of further negotiations and if there was we would end up making further concessions so it is really is "deal or no deal".
ray hutstone- Registered: 1 Apr 2018
- Posts: 2,158
Howard - there is an ONS pie chart doing the rounds on the web which shows just how tiny our expenditure on EU membership is when compared to other areas of government expenditure. The reality is that we have been vastly better off as a nation since our membership of the single market. Project reality is finally beginning to dawn on people. A second referendum is the only logical option.
Surely if the brexiteers are so sure of their arguments they will only expect their winning margin to increase?
Bob Whysman
- Registered: 23 Aug 2013
- Posts: 1,934
howard mcsweeney1 and John Buckley like this
Do nothing and nothing happens.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Matthew Parris writing in the Times.
If we could rewind, would we do it again? How many times must leaders have asked themselves this question. When was the moment, the last moment, I could have relented? The rest of us are not so different. It is within the experience of us all to find ourselves drawn by events, by passion, by persuasion or even by inattention, into a project that begins to oppress us just as the appointed time for lift-off approaches. The walls close in. Options narrow. I have friends who got married like that, knowing by the time they approached the altar that it would not end well, but the marquee had been booked and it would surely have killed poor Mum; others who split up because after an angry scene they were too proud to relent; friends who bought a house they knew by the time they exchanged they didn’t like.
Unwillingness to look weak or let others down, embarrassment at upsetting the apple-cart, a half-hearted attempt to rationalise and hope for the best . . . all these things whisper “onward”; and, even as the heart sinks a kind of psychological momentum builds. Head down and just go on with it. “Too late. I’m stuck with it now.” Except you aren’t. Or weren’t. You are now but you weren’t then. Then was your last chance to stop it. Couldn’t you see that, you fool? These “no turning back now” moments are so often, in retrospect, the last moment at which we actually could have turned back. We felt trapped at the time but can see now that this was not the moment we were trapped. It was the moment before we were trapped.
So it is with Brexit. These are the weeks before the year turns that we’ll look back on and understand that this was the last time we really could have turned back. I’m not addressing convinced Brexiteers here. They’ve embraced a faith and are beyond reason. Nor am I addressing it to convinced remainers. They too have nailed their colours to the mast. My intended audience are that great swathe of Conservative MPs — I suspect at least half of them — whose heart isn’t in this but who feel torn, constrained. A most seductive piece of music is now wafting their way. I call it the Finkeltruce song and you will have caught its keynote in my Times colleague Daniel Finkelstein’s column last week (“Jo Johnson’s stance on Brexit is dishonest and dangerous”, November 13). Danny took issue with my “no surrender” message on this page, in which I suggested this was no time to grow up and back down; and snatches of the Finkeltruce song are emerging in phone calls I get from “moderate” Remainer friends on the Tory benches. The government whips are humming it, though mostly under their breath when Brexiteers are within earshot. Not in front of the children. Essentially the lyric is that it is time to heal the Tories’ internal wounds and split the difference over Brexit. Theresa May’s deal (runs the chorus) does that. This is why neither side much loves it. The fact that nobody much loves it is actually the reason why it’s the best outcome (continues the song) because if nobody really wins, nobody really loses; and the Conservative Party, and avid Remainers and Leavers in the country beyond Westminster, can step away from the fray with honour intact, shake hands, and all live happily ever after.
So with a fair wind, both sides, Leavers and Remainers, could learn to live with the May deal (whistle the whips) and give it two cheers if not three when the Commons comes to its “meaningful vote” before Christmas. Lovely stuff. Wonderfully beguiling. And total nonsense. If truce there be, it will be like that Christmas truce in the First World War when soldiers on both sides emerged from their trenches and played football. Church of England bishops love rehearsing this mawkish story in their festive sermons. What they omit to mention is that after those tinselled 24 hours both sides resumed killing each other with undiminished fury. But enough of the soft-falling snow of compromise, blurring for a while the hard outlines of the waiting artillery. Here are the facts. The case for Theresa May’s deal would be worth considering if its driving argument — that this could end the war over Brexit — were true.
It is undoubtedly false. The Brexiteers are not even pretending to accept the fuzzy “political declaration” that Mrs May unveiled in the Commons on Thursday to dispirited Tories. If May’s deal goes through they intend to step back and take another run at her plan as soon as Britain has left the EU. Be clear. They want us properly out of the EU. They have logic on their side when they say that May’s deal is worse even than remaining, and the so-called implementation period that begins after we leave will be their battleground for a new war to which they will return with refreshed ferocity.
Remainers ought to know, and I think do, that the minority Brexit hardline gang are not for meeting in the middle. Under May’s deal we face at least another two years of vicious infighting within the governing party. “Be the grown-ups,” says Danny to us Remainers. I reply that if being adult means giving way to blackmail, count me in with the kids. Fire must sometimes be fought with fire, and the Remain side have thus far surprised Brexiteers with the spirit of their resistance. The eve of this key Commons battle is no time to start conceding. Somebody has to win.
What if we block Brexit again at Westminster? Chaos? Stalemate? We must be prepared to countenance confusion or we will always be the losers, because the other side are careless what damage they do. I finish with an encouraging thought which has yet (I think) to be injected into these arguments. On what might follow defeat of the May plan, the rest of the EU has not yet spoken; nor will they (quite rightly) while our prime minister’s proposals are still alive. However, if or when they fall I would expect, in short order, an initiative from our EU partners, opening the door to extending the negotiating period should Britain wish to conduct a new referendum. This is a likelihood.
Remainer MPs should look beyond a Commons defeat for Mrs May and factor it in. It is not in the EU’s interests that Britain “crash out” without a deal. They will act accordingly. There is perhaps one reason why Remainers should vote for the deal, and I suspect it’s Ken Clarke’s and Nicky Morgan’s reason. If the government is going to lose anyway, then at least we can blame it on the Brexiteers. Should make the Christmas fund-raising do in the constituency a bit easier to navigate . . . But hush! The Brexiteers may be listening.
ray hutstone likes this
Bob Whysman- Registered: 23 Aug 2013
- Posts: 1,934
Matthew Parris:
........irons in many fires!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Parris
Spinning like a top and still playing catchup to Hans Christian Anderson!
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2007/jul/10/media.pressandpublishingDo nothing and nothing happens.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Our PM giving way yet again, she must know that Spain or any other country has the power to block the agreement tomorrow.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/24/brexit-may-gives-way-over-gibraltar-after-spains-veto-threathoward mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Daniel Hannan writing in the Telegraph.
Sunday, according to gleeful Remainers, is the day that Brexit fantasies collide with cold reality. Leavers, they claim, have been in a trance, dreaming of some unachievable Brexit peddled by charlatans during the referendum campaign. In Brussels, those Leavers will supposedly be jolted back to their senses by the harsh withdrawal terms agreed by Theresa May and her 27 fellow heads of government. You will read variants of that analysis in almost every Europhile medium. You will hear it repeated across the Continent. The deal, as one Italian newspaper puts it, represents “a resounding victory for the EU over Her Majesty’s subjects”. Yet there was nothing inevitable about this climbdown. On the contrary, there is something extraordinary, awe-inspiring even, about the slow-witted cowardice that led British negotiators to this point.
Their first error was to trigger Article 50, not only before any contingency preparations had been made, but before the government had any sense of what it wanted. During the referendum campaign, Vote Leave had said that Article 50 should be moved only when there was a clear understanding of what trade agreement Britain would have with the EU or, failing that, of what it would do in the event of no deal. But, to the astonishment of her advisers, Mrs May announced a date for Article 50 for no better purpose, if accounts are to be believed, than to have something to say in her 2016 party conference speech. She thus initiated a count-down against herself with no clear idea of what to do next. Then came the disastrous acceptance of the EU’s sequencing, which meant that all British leverage, including the exaggerated financial contributions, would be tossed away before the EU even began to discuss trade.
That was followed by the general election, whose result meant that any faction able to muster a dozen MPs now had an effective veto on the outcome. The EU grasped the implications, and toughened its stance accordingly, but the British side plodded on dully. Most calamitous of all was the acceptance of the Irish backstop a year ago, from no higher motive than wanting to be able to declare that progress was being made. Can you blame Eurocrats for gloating? They sensed right at the start that they were dealing with a defeated and dispirited British team, whose only objective was to come back with something – anything – that could be described as a technical fulfilment of the referendum mandate. Getting a deal had become an end in itself rather than a means to an end. Like Alec Guinness’s character in The Bridge on the River Kwai, our leaders had confused ends and means. Early in this process, I had a depressing conversation with one of our key officials. “If the EU wants to shaft us, it will,” he told me. “We have to persuade it not to want to”. His was, of course, a self-fulfilling attitude.
Sure enough, we have ended up with the sort of deal that a defeated nation signs under duress. Britain will be subject to all the costs and obligations of EU membership with no vote, no voice and no veto. That extraordinary arrangement was first mooted as an “implementation period” during which the long-term trading relationship would be put in place. In the event, though, talks on that relationship have not begun, and we now know that the “implementation period” will be strung out until it is replaced by something every bit as bad: a “backstop” that keeps us in the customs union. Unbelievably, Britain has given the EU a veto over whether it can leave these arrangements: unlike EU membership itself, we have no right to walk away.
Brussels will run our trade policy, our economy, even elements of our taxation for as long as it likes. As the usually Euro-fanatical Bloomberg asked incredulously last week, “Once Britain has acceded to this, what reason is there for the EU to agree to any other kind of deal?” British spokesmen point half-heartedly to clauses in the (non-binding) Political Declaration that accompanies the (binding) Withdrawal Agreement, vaguely committing both sides to find a trade deal. But, from the EU’s point of view, what could be better than keeping Britain as a non-voting member, its vast home market gripped in the vice of the customs union for the convenience of Continental exporters, its weight in global trade talks used solely to benefit to the remaining 27? Are we supposed to believe that the EU will offer us a better deal out of generosity? Have we not heard the repeated declarations by Jean-Claude Juncker, Donald Tusk and others that Brexit must carry, and must be seen to carry, a penalty?
“You broke it you own it,” say some British Europhiles, unable to hide their excitement at our national humiliation. But Leavers never did “own” this process. From the start, it has been controlled by those who wished it wasn’t happening, and who defined success as salvaging as much as they could of the old dispensation. The most significant aspect of the government resignations since June is the departing ministers’ portfolios. Boris Johnson, David Davis, Steve Baker, Dominic Raab and Suella Braverman were all directly involved in the disengagement process, either through the Foreign Office or through the Brexit ministry. They were not dealing in fantasies. They knew exactly what the EU was prepared to accept, and were eventually driven to resign because British negotiators wouldn’t ask for it.
John Buckley and Brian Dixon like this
ray hutstone- Registered: 1 Apr 2018
- Posts: 2,158
Parris is once again right on the button. Hannan, as myopic as ever, continues to blame everyone except the real culprits.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Mathew Parris is saying what Barnier said over a year ago that the issue was about control of the Tory party and sod the country basically. Much as I dislike Hannan as he is a glib type who happily trousers vast sums of money from an organisation he professes to despise but he does make some good points today particularly over the timing of the triggering of article 50.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
All signed and sealed now so just a matter of getting Parliament to approve it.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46334649Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
I hope shes not wearing a stab proof jacks, knives are out via snp and dup plus labour and her own back benchers.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Brian Dixon wrote:I hope shes not wearing a stab proof jacks, knives are out via snp and dup plus labour and her own back benchers.
We can add to that five senior Remain backing Ministers that are reported to be forming another "gang of five" wanting to negotiate a better deal - a bit late for that. It looks as though the Common Fisheries Policy will stay albeit dressed up in another name. Scottish Tories and the SNP can see through it and the DUP and other Northern Ireland parties are unhappy about the province being allegedly treated differently to the rest of the UK. On a minor point I keep reading that we joined the EU in 1973 but it wasn't formed until 1993.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
I see the Brexit has started to kick in, feel sorry for the house sellers not being able to get full market value.
https://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/brexit-fears-mean-fewer-homes-sold-in-kent-194118/Ross Miller
- Location: London Road, Dover
- Registered: 17 Sep 2008
- Posts: 3,698
ah but Brian surely market value is what the market is prepared to bear...if in these uncertain times the prices the market is prepared to pay drops then that is market value; or did you mean the inflated values encouraged by certain of the towns estate agents?
Button likes this
"Dream as if you'll live forever. Live as if you'll die today." - James Dean
"Being deeply loved by someone gives you strength,
While loving someone deeply gives you courage" - Laozi
Button- Location: Dover
- Registered: 22 Jul 2016
- Posts: 3,033
The European Economic Community was a regional organisation which aimed to bring about economic integration among its member states. It was created by the Treaty of Rome of 1957. Upon the completion of the Single Market and formation of the European Union in 1993, the EEC was incorporated and renamed as the European Community.
So we joined the EEC in 1973; the EU came along on 1.1.1993 and for the most part did away with customs clearance of intra-EU trade.
(Not my real name.)
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
The PM starts her nationwide tour today selling her plan to local MPs and the wider public ahead of the Commons vote in 15 days time, considering her track record of surviving I wouldn't bet against her getting the deal through. The ERG group seem to have gone quiet, maybe they are drafting something themselves.
Captain Haddock
- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 7,985
Ross Miller likes this
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 7,985
This week’s investment highlights:
▪️France: Safran Nacelles to invest £12m in Burnley
▪️Luxembourg: United Caps to build new £18m Rotherham factory
▪️Germany: Siemens to create 700 jobs at new £200m Goole factory
▪️USA: Dowty Propellers breaks ground on new UK factory
#InSpiteOfBrexit!
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
howard mcsweeney1 and John Buckley like thisDo nothing and nothing happens.
Ross Miller likes this"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
