Captain Haddock
- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 7,987
Yup. Could get bad if the froggies CHOOSE to bugger us around.
Not sure how French business or citizens are going to be too happy to know that all the stuff they've ordered and paid for is being held up for no particular reason by Les Douanier and his mates but there you go.
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
Button
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 22 Jul 2016
- Posts: 3,033
The UKBF slide (not a document I recognise) falls into 2 parts.
1. ‘The French will apply at least the legal minimum of third country customs controls on all goods and sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) checks on specified food and agricultural products. This includes the imposition of 100% customs documentation checks.’
The first sentence is factually correct; this is how trade from countries outside the Single Market is treated by Member States at the behest of the EU. It describes exactly what the UK currently does at Heathrow, Felixstowe and the like, whether the goods come from Canada, Turkey (despite their Customs Union with the EU) and so on. It will apply if no Withdrawal Agreement and/or Transition Period is agreed and in all bar one scenario after any Transition Period. The second sentence is more ambiguous but, depending on how you define ‘customs documentation’ and ‘checks’, accurately describes Dover Straits routes.
2. ‘The reasonable worst case scenario is that flow through the Short Straits is reduced to between 13% and 25% of current capacity for a period of between 3 – 6 months’ [and] ‘A "new normal" for cross-Channel freight will be 50-100% of current flows lasting "until significant changes are made to improve border arrangements such as automation”.’
This is an estimate of what a worst case scenario could look like. The slide does not say how the reduction to (not by) 13 – 25% is arrived at; perhaps UKBF has reasoned that the Straits routes currently cope with c.10% of trade being “3rd country”, so at a push let’s double it and add a pinch for luck. The slide also does not elaborate on what magical Tooth Fairy makes things better 3 – 6 months down the line.
Although I’m pleased that UKBF have realised that the French terminals (with the possible exception of Dunkerque) are, if anything, in a much worse position than the UK ones, I do think that the slide tends to over-do the gloom a tad. I suspect that most of our outbound traffic is not to France, but into/through it, and hence customs clearance will be performed further down the line. That does leave French checks on UK and Eire Transit declarations and EU export declarations but, were use of the former to be made mandatory, it is not beyond the wit of man for the UK to perform them on behalf of the EU once traffic is committed to the crossing.
Whether the estimate is right or wrong, it highlights the lunacy of marginally adding tonnage on cross-channel routes. Even if Dover/Cheriton ferries/shuttles cannot load or unload, simply adding the odd service elsewhere will only increase uplift capacity briefly – until that vessel can’t unload and reload either!
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(Not my real name.)
Neil Moors- Registered: 3 Feb 2016
- Posts: 1,298
But everything is going to be ok, because some bloke from the Port of Calais said so, right?
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howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Re;- 3323
Firstly what about groupage trailers with say a pallet of tea or coffee amongst 20 tonnes of non food items? I can see groupage operators having to refuse food items just to ensure "frictionless" movement.
Secondly there is the issue of customs declarations which so many traders have not had to complete before, the port has said that those vehicles will be pulled to one side until the problem is sorted. Lucky there is so much space going spare around the port.
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howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Neil Moors wrote:But everything is going to be ok, because some bloke from the Port of Calais said so, right?
Charlie has been quoting the Deputy Mayor and head honcho at the port who have assured us of no delays due to them. I have seen no such assurance from the French customs who will simply do their job and check the paperwork is correct, that is when any problems will arise.
Button- Location: Dover
- Registered: 22 Jul 2016
- Posts: 3,033
Re post 3325... quite!
I love this idea of lorries being pulled to one side because they haven't done something (like go to the back of Stack) or haven't got something (like customs declarations) or have got something (like "meat"). I myself can tell at a glance when a lorry needs to be pulled aside.
Actually, I lie - I can't tell without stopping all of them and asking the driver!
PS: showing your age Mr McS - they're up to 44 tonners now!
(Not my real name.)
Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 7,987
A Frenchman writes:-
Xavier Bertrand
Verified account @xavierbertrand
5h5 hours ago
EU law on sanitary checks can be flexible: exemptions to phyto controls on site exists, ID controls can be reduced. Only barcodes are compulsory. We asked
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
I seem to remember Bob posting something along these lines but more importantly those who think we will be safer in our beds after March 29 need to think again.
https://news.sky.com/story/degradation-of-border-security-under-no-deal-brexit-warns-uk-border-force-11614725Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 7,987
[QUOTE="howard mcsweeney1"]I seem to remember Bob posting something along these lines [/QUOTE
It depends who you talk to. It's complicated. There is a trade off between trade and security, There always has been . There always is. ;-)
Guest 3065 likes this
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
Guest 3065- Registered: 10 Jan 2019
- Posts: 145
Everything will be OK there will be some disruption in the beginning for awhile then after that it will be OK the pound will go up people need to be more positive
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
not when p & o have reflagged to eu tax benefits, sony are moving there european office to Amsterdam and dyson moving his office to Singapore. plenty of cofidance here, not.
Guest 3065- Registered: 10 Jan 2019
- Posts: 145
Brian Dixon more fool them then when brexit is done there be companies moving over to the UK
Neil Moors- Registered: 3 Feb 2016
- Posts: 1,298
The one thing you can say about a no deal - the evidence will be there for all to see. If there are queues of lorries for miles on end approaching Dover, Charlie Elphicke can personally direct traffic from the Jubilee Way roundabout. Conversely, if everything turns out ok, he can say I told you there was nothing to worry about. For once in politics, there is no hiding place....
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Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
kimmie, they have done so for tax reasons. p&o more so. that means they can save money by keeping there eu benefits.
ps, dyson owner is a big brexitier,so he must know something we don't.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Moving his manufacturing nearer to his main client base is reasonable but not his corporate headquarters. I suppose, like one of his more famous products, we will just have to suck it up.
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ray hutstone- Registered: 1 Apr 2018
- Posts: 2,158
And of course it has absolutely nothing to do with the EU - Singapore free trade agreement (EUSFTA) finally signed, sealed and delivered 3 months ago? His products will now qualify to be imported into the EU on a tariff free basis. Odd coincidence that, eh?
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Reginald Barrington
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 17 Dec 2014
- Posts: 3,235
His products qualified already, seeing as how they are already being made in Singapore, just saying!
Arte et Marte
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
One of the biggest losers in the event of no deal will be our high street pharmacists who get paid a set amount for each drug dispensed. About 75% of pharmaceutical products are imported and half of our insulin comes from a company in Denmark who are making plans to air freight stuff in which will bump up costs.
Button- Location: Dover
- Registered: 22 Jul 2016
- Posts: 3,033
The EUSFTA is good news for consumers then. What with Dyson appliances being made in Singapore and containing the appropriate level of originating components and now the removal of EU tariffs, it logically follows that we can expect a reduction in prices. And, once the UK and Singapore replicate the EUSFTA, the lower prices will be here to stay.
(Not my real name.)
