howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
The bookies have it 5 to 1 on that we will not leave on 29th of March and they never get things that wrong. I will have to hunt around to find that statement from Brussels offering an extension into 2020 that I read yesterday.
Button
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 22 Jul 2016
- Posts: 3,033
Sometimes they get it wrong - they mis-called the result of the 2016 referendum. At the time I was genuinely shocked (but glad because I bet on Leave out of sheer devilment), but since then I've come to wonder how could they know more than we do. So I bet £5 and win £1 if we don't leave on March 29th; why not £1.50, or just 50p - on what basis can political forecasting really be that accurate? Perhaps it's more a question of managing punters' bets...
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(Not my real name.)
Captain Haddock
- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 7,987
Button wrote: Perhaps it's more a question of managing punters' bets...
Precisely. The 'bookmaker' doesn't have a view on who might win. All he is doing (nowadays using computers - though my grandfather had to do it on paper) is adjusting the odds so that the money from losing punters is greater than the payout to winning ones.
In days of old with small time bookies at racecourses this would sometimes require him to put money on an outcome with another bookmaker to 'offset his bets'.
It's all maths basically.
The fact that the 'bookies are usually right' relies on the 'wisdom of crowds' though this can obviously be skewed by a large individual bet or bets on a particular outcome.
howard mcsweeney1 and Button like this
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Guest 1881- Registered: 16 Oct 2016
- Posts: 1,071
#3286 That photo shows just how incompetent British negotiations for the EU withdrawal agreement is. The EU (left to right) key notables of Michael Grade (minus the cigar), Dale Winton (minus the orange aurora), and Elton John (minus the spectacles) are all Brits deliberately stymying the UK government.
howard mcsweeney1 likes this
Just because you don't take an interest in politics doesn't mean that politics won't take an interest in you. PERICLES.
Keith Sansum1
- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,865
Doesn't everyone else worry that in reality the govt has a poor deal If it ever is signed off
Labour just wants a general election which it won't win anyway
Isn't this all a mess
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 7,987
Keith Sansum1 wrote:Doesn't everyone else worry that in reality the govt has a poor deal If it ever is signed off
No I don't, at all. The 500 odd page withdrawal agreement seems quite reasonable to me.
It sets a framework for negotiating the minutiae of our relationship which was always to be thrashed out post-Brexit.
I'm totally fed up with those like 'our' Charlie who say it does not deliver 'what people voted for' and equally those calling for a 'people's vote' as 'we didn't know what we voted for' who when pressed admit they are hoping to retain the status quo.
It is NOT Theresa May's deal. It is a deal which has ben negotiated over the past two years by senior civil servants.
'Her' red lines are no more than parameters setting out a minimum requirement to resemble to any reasonably intelligent person (and there's very few of them about) would have put down on the back of an envelope if asked to describe what 'leaving the EU' might look like.
Button likes this
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
Keith Sansum1 wrote:Doesn't everyone else worry that in reality the govt has a poor deal If it ever is signed off
Labour just wants a general election which it won't win anyway
Isn't this all a mess
yes keith it's a pigs ear of a deal.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
Captain Haddock wrote:No I don't, at all. The 500 odd page withdrawal agreement seems quite reasonable to me.
It sets a framework for negotiating the minutiae of our relationship which was always to be thrashed out post-Brexit.
I'm totally fed up with those like 'our' Charlie who say it does not deliver 'what people voted for' and equally those calling for a 'people's vote' as 'we didn't know what we voted for' who when pressed admit they are hoping to retain the status quo.
It is NOT Theresa May's deal. It is a deal which has ben negotiated over the past two years by senior civil servants.
'Her' red lines are no more than parameters setting out a minimum requirement to resemble to any reasonably intelligent person (and there's very few of them about) would have put down on the back of an envelope if asked to describe what 'leaving the EU' might look like.
bob, the whole deal is not worth the paper it's writtan on
Weird Granny Slater
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 7 Jun 2017
- Posts: 3,008
It's simply not fair to place the burden of understanding on the reasonably intelligent. I think the unreasonably intelligent should chip in too.
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'Pass the cow dung, my dropsy's killing me' - Heraclitus
Neil Moors- Registered: 3 Feb 2016
- Posts: 1,298
My theory, at this point, is that both May and Corbyn would very much like an extension to Article 50, but neither want to be seen as the one behind doing so. Therefore, if some pesky backbench MP were to do something technical to force that to happen, and Parliament got behind it, I think they would all be rather happy. The can, as ever, is kicked down the road.....
Guest 3065- Registered: 10 Jan 2019
- Posts: 145
Neil moors We will make sure that doesn't happen
ray hutstone- Registered: 1 Apr 2018
- Posts: 2,158
That sounds ominous, Kimmie. Who's the "we"?
Neil - I'm sure you're right up to a point. But in addition to not wanting to be the ones to instigate an extension to Article 50, Corbyn is ideologically against it however much pressure his party may put on him. I don't think May really wants us to crash out but will be happy to take that as a fall back position and let parliament take the blame for rejecting her bill.
In the meanwhile, how much impetus can Grieve, Benn, Soubry and co muster to prevent a disaster?
Guest 1881- Registered: 16 Oct 2016
- Posts: 1,071
#3295. Grieve, Hilary Benn and Soubry?! Wow! Heroes Assemble!
As for 'disaster' Ray, I would prefer a fair deal rather than a no deal; however, I would not rate a no deal as being a disaster.
Just because you don't take an interest in politics doesn't mean that politics won't take an interest in you. PERICLES.
Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 7,987
The Bishop wrote:#3295. Grieve, Hilary Benn and Soubry?! Wow! Heroes Assemble!
As for 'disaster' Ray, I would prefer a fair deal rather than a no deal; however, I would not rate a no deal as being a disaster.
Not a disaster BUT what happens at 23.01 on 29 March when the Border Force operative at Calais is faced with a coachload of Froggies heading from Paris to London wishing to do various things for various times. Under what powers will he treat them?
We are STILL awaiting the long promised Immigration Act to deal with travel post-Brexit!
Anyone coming to work no longer has rights under the Treaty of Rome so should be refused entry presumably, unless they have a Work Permit which they didn't need two minutes ago?
Others should be given some sort of limited time to stay in UK and employment restricted but even if we have worked out what the conditions are how do we give them notice since they no longer have passports to stamp, or overnight are we no longer going to accept EU ID cards?
What if they all 'claim' to be returning residents who left the UK that morning since we have no embarkation check and no register of EU citizens resident in the UK?
When I've asked these questions of Border Force contacts their answer to a man (or woman) has been 'F**k knows!'
Interesting times ................................
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
Button- Location: Dover
- Registered: 22 Jul 2016
- Posts: 3,033
Post 3297: the weekly incoming Romanian tranny van run of lads and lasses would be advised to turn up early to avoid disappointment!
On a point of detail, don't we have Exit Checks on 100% of outbound pax?
(Not my real name.)
Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 7,987
Button wrote:Post 3297: the weekly incoming Romanian tranny van run of lads and lasses would be advised to turn up early to avoid disappointment!
On a point of detail, don't we have Exit Checks on 100% of outbound pax?
Yes inasmuch as API collected or data collected at such as ferry ports on departure. The question is whether the data is being used to match entry/exit for majority of pax who are 'not of interest' e.g. EU or 'Code5' landings.
Bring back the girls at Traffic Index I say!
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
Guest 3065- Registered: 10 Jan 2019
- Posts: 145
Ray hutston the we are us brexiteers
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
kimmie wrote:Ray hutston the we are us brexiteers
What an excellent film that was Kimmie, out of the three I thought D'Artagnan was best but others will disagree.
