Button
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 22 Jul 2016
- Posts: 3,028
Thank you Captain; wish I knew what non-EU countries he was thinking of, because I'm genuinely blowed if I can.
(Not my real name.)
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Courtesy of the Telegraoh
it would be stretching it to describe Mrs May’s return to London yesterday as triumphant, but after four days of dogged negotiations with her Democratic Unionist allies, she does at least live to fight another day. The dawn dash to Brussels had a whiff of desperation about about it - Donald Tusk, the European Council president had to catch a plane to Hungary - but despite all the predictions of doom in recent weeks and months, Mrs May has finally got the job done.Or half the job. Or perhaps even less than half. As officials on both sides of the Channel are always cautioning, reaching the goal of ‘sufficient progress’ and unlocking the door to talks on trade and transition was the ‘easy part’.
The fact that it cost 10 months precious months and €45 billion to reach a mere ‘agreement to proceed’ on to the substance of the EU and UK’s future relationship speaks to the enormity of the challenge that now lies ahead.
In essence, when talks begin in the New Year, Mrs May faces a reckoning of the rhetoric that has driven the competing visions for Brexit, both in her party and in the country at large. Mrs May remains adamant that Britain will embrace a new, global strategy, leaving the EU’s single market and customs union in order to reclaim the power to strike trade deals on our own.
She will also ‘take back control’ of Britain’s borders, ending the EU doctrine of ‘free movement’ that spurred so many to vote to leave, and restoring the supremacy of UK courts from the European Court of Justice (ECJ). At the same time as ending free movement and seeking to go-it-alone in order to achieve an as yet undetermined global competitive advantage, Mrs May wishes to build a “deep and special partnership” with our European allies. This has been the constant promise of the last 18 months; whether it can survive the next 18 months will be the test of Mrs May’s premiership.
Because the EU is adamant that it will not allow the UK to see marginal advantage, without imposing equal or greater marginal costs in terms of frictions to trade. Michael Gove says that he wants all that fine freedom to diverge, but at the same time wants the EU to offer a trade deal that covers both goods, in which the EU runs a large surplus with the UK, and services, where the UK holds the upper hand.
Mrs May is equally clear. She wants neither the ‘Norway’ arrangement, where you accept free movement and pay large contributions in exchange for access to the single market, nor a limited ‘Canada’ style trade deal, which would impose “such a restriction on our mutual market access” that all sides would lose out. But that, according to Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, is precisely where you arrive at if you follow Mrs May’s own ‘red lines’ on immigration, ECJ and trade to their logical conclusion. ‘What are you left with?’, he asked rhetorically yesterday. “Just one thing,” came back the reply, “free trade agreement on the Canadian model.” And as the European Parliament’s resolution Brexit points out, in such a basic Free Trade Agreement, access for goods should be as “broad as possible”, while access for services will subject to “exclusions, reservations and exceptions”.
Perhaps the EU is bluffing about its determination to impose hard choices on Mrs May. Perhaps everyone taking a decent breather over Christmas, coupled with the promise to pay €45bn will soften these hard edges; take the heat out of things. no-one should bet on that. As the row over the Irish question in recent days has shown, when Brexit rhetoric collides with Brexit reality, it can have explosive consequences. A giant minefield lies ahead.
Neil Moors- Registered: 3 Feb 2016
- Posts: 1,295
So, here is my theory....
The one thing that nobody in these talks wanted, is the fall of Theresa May. That would have left only two options; a general election, or, a lunatic like Boris of JRM in charge of Brexit. From a UK Government perspective, you want stability, from an EU perpective, the current Government is the least worst scenario , from an Ireland perpective, you do want a trade deal with the U.K. and from a DUP perspective you want to continue to be relevant.
Given these machinations, I think they have, between them, come up with wording that is vague enough to please everybody and nobody, thus allowing everyone to fight another day. I don't believe for one minute some of these knotty issues have gone away, they are parked. Put simply, the EU is being too nice. They are only doing so to allow May to look good and retain her position, for now.
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PatrickS
- Location: Marine Parade, Dover
- Registered: 19 Sep 2015
- Posts: 448
I am forever amazed at our politicians ingenuity in announcing failure as a 'successful outcome'.
Come to a Country like ours. Blink and you've missed it. 15 pages of self congratulatory statements of intent -called a Report (wolf words in sheeps clothing) that says very little and solves even less, bar a hearty slap on each other's back.
Clause 49 - the EU catch-all. 'Leavers' death trap.
A maze in reverse. Negotiating blind alleys, narrow paths, dead ends, light fading and your beacon of hope has lost its source of power. Where is the exit now! I can hear the dogs barking - are they ours or...........
One has to wonder why we are still 'negotiating' with a bureaucratic non- elected bunch of Europhants more concerned with their own self importance in maintaining control over the whole (well most) of Europe than the welfare of its Nation States. I see Poland is the latest to revolt against Brussels directive.
I am all for good relations with our European friends of Nations and their peoples, just not with a Union hell bent on controlling what they can or cannot do. To misquote Aristotle - the whole ( in this instance) is lesser than the sum of its parts- by virtue of suppression of actions and lack of freedom to act individually or as a Nation. Ironic really.
Our Nations pride is a stake. Far more important than its political namesake whichever party be in power.
John Buckley, Guest 1881, Jan Higgins and
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howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
I certainly think it is in the interests of the EU to keep Cruella in charge, they are aware of the two mentioned by Neil who would just be interested in grabbing headlines. Another thing they must fear is a snap General Election that would bring Labour to power who would have their internal splits exposed. The biggest fear for the bureaucrats is giving us a good deal thus encouraging other member states to try to leave.
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
did any any notice that she been to the hairdressers for highlights of ash blonde.
Guest 745- Registered: 27 Mar 2012
- Posts: 3,370
Bob
if you think people will forgive and still turn out to vote for a party that has given away £££ billions of their cash for nothing ??? you're fooling your self .
the conservative party have dragged this out ,syncronising our laws and standers to the EU,.mebership in all but name.
the government have stabbed 17.4 million people in the back ...even you Bob couldn't bullshite your way out of that one
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
done the other 43 million a favor though,majority rules kieth.
Guest 1881- Registered: 16 Oct 2016
- Posts: 1,071
#1278 That post accompanied by your profile picture. Absolute Alf Garnett.
Just because you don't take an interest in politics doesn't mean that politics won't take an interest in you. PERICLES.
Captain Haddock
- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 7,939
Neil Moors and Button like this
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
Guest 1881- Registered: 16 Oct 2016
- Posts: 1,071
We are now in a position where the EU can she have vulnerable Mrs May is. Somewhat conversely, this weakness can be her strength. The EU didn't offer Cameron anything, despite his pathetic attempts to window dress the non-existent pre-referendum offer. The EU (and many in Britain) see that Cameron 'lost' the referendum. The EU negotiating team will see that the British will not accept a fudge and will try their darnest create a deal just short of a fudge.
There'll be plenty of column inches between now and March 2019, but I think nobody, in either side of the negotiating teams, is under any illusion now.
John Buckley likes this
Just because you don't take an interest in politics doesn't mean that politics won't take an interest in you. PERICLES.
Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 7,939
If only we had that Kier Starmer negotiating! If you think Davis is bad you should have seen the alternative on Marr this morning.
He would not only roll over but ask Junker to tickle his tummy!
John Buckley likes this
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
Guest 1881- Registered: 16 Oct 2016
- Posts: 1,071
Captain, are you using a tactic of attack the opposition rather than defend your own stance?
Just because you don't take an interest in politics doesn't mean that politics won't take an interest in you. PERICLES.
Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 7,939
Quite happy with negotiations so far.
1) Didn't end up paying 'up to £100 billion' between now and Dooms-Day as predicted.
2) Surmounted 'insurmountable' problems with Irish Border.
3) Outline agreement over EU citizens in UK (and more importantly Brits abroad)
We move on.
Expect months of water-cooler discussions from bar-room experts forecasting 40% import tariffs, planes grounded, forces insisting on fighting in their own bit of NATO, and Plod refusing to talk to Inspector Clouseau, before last minute agreement that life carries on much as before.
Everything so far as I have expected since day one. What's not to like?
(On other hand 'just in case' off to new Lidl to stock up with Evian water just in case it all goes tits up!)
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Now we have David Davis contradicting the Chancellor by saying we may not pay a divorce bill if we don't strike a good trade agreement.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-eu-canada-plus-plus-plus-andrew-marr-show-a8101876.htmlCaptain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 7,939
Correct Howard, because as we all (?) know it is an agreement we are negotiating.
So far negotiations have been conducted 'in good faith'. Say, for example that the EU decided (which they won't) to impose a 40% import duty on cars manufactured in the UK, obviously DD would say 'Sod this for a game of soldiers, you can forget about any payment at all'.
Stop worrying. It's not going to happen.
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Labour seem to have the same problem as the Tories, I doubt that Starmer had the OK from the leadership with today's bit. Interesting to know what he means by easy movement, if it is where people have a job offer where there is a skills shortage there shouldn't be a problem.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/10/labour-backs-easy-movement-of-eu-workers-after-brexit-says-keir-starmerCaptain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 7,939
Starmer is busking it. He has no idea.
https://order-order.com/2017/12/10/labour-wont-rule-second-referendum-payments-easy-not-free-movement/
Even worse is Emily Thornberry who thinks that if we’re exporting goods to “Europe” we “need" the “same standards”.
What we need is to negotiate a deal where we have mutual recognition of *equivalent* standards.
It's the same rubbish that people were saying about TTIP, how we'd all have to accept US 'laws' and force feed our children chlorinated GM modified chicken! Are these people really as stupid as they seem?
To quote Sir Christopher Mayer
"The media, like Pavlov’s dogs, are already hyping Cabinet discussion of the “end-state” as if it were the Wars of Religion when all that is needed is the sensible and rather boring pragmatism that got us over the “sufficient progress” hurdle.""We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
Ross Miller
- Location: London Road, Dover
- Registered: 17 Sep 2008
- Posts: 3,696
I suspect Cap'n they are not nearly as thick as you presume or pretend or perhaps it is that you are not as clever as you pretend?
"Dream as if you'll live forever. Live as if you'll die today." - James Dean
"Being deeply loved by someone gives you strength,
While loving someone deeply gives you courage" - Laozi
Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 7,939
Rather amusingly Ross, I was sent last week, rather reluctantly, on a course on 'effective communication'.
As I left the mother of my children said 'Perhaps you'll came back sounding less bloody arrogant!'
Looks like that failed.
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
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